The Week Ahead: Jobs, global trade, manufacturing

Computer operators in the 1940s

The jobs numbers always get the headlines. Which is odd. It’s a trailing indicator, a recitation of history rather than an anticipation of the things to come. And yet, it’s up close and personal. Most of us have jobs, and all of us understand the impact of being without work.

Hence, the headlines that we’ll see on Friday when the employment situation report is published at 8:30 a.m. New York time. The sneak preview, the ADP employment report compiled by a leading American payroll company, will be released on Wednesday at 8:15 a.m.

On Friday, simultaneously with the jobs report, we’ll get international trade stats, also at 8:30 a.m.

A major forward-looking report, the Institute of Supply Management  manufacturing survey, will by published on Monday at 10 a.m.

Today’s Book:

The Trader’s Guide to Key Economic IndicatorsBy Richard Yamarone

How to understand and act on the data that traces the course of our economy.

And the Fedsters are coming out in droves during the week.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has two appearances.

First, he talks about the economic with the National Association of Business Economics annual meeting in Boston, on Tuesday at 12:45 a.m., and then sits for a discussion with PBS NewsHour anchor Judy Woodruff  at The Atlantic Festival in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday at 4 p.m. The discussion with Woodruff will be streamed here.

Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles has two appearances as well.

He testifies on Tuesday at 10 a.m. before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Development Committee, about implementation of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act, signed into law by President Trump at June. It reforms the post-recession Dodd-Frank regulations, among other things.

Quarles also speaks about trends in community banking to the St. Fed’s community banking conference, in St. Louis, Mo., on Thursday at 9:15 a.m. It will be screened here.

And Fed Gov. Lael Brainard will address the FedPayments Improvement Community Forum in Chicago, on Wednesday at 2 p.m. It will streamed here.
Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

Vendor performance, or the deliveries times index, from the Institute of Supply Management manufacturing survey, at 10 a.m. Monday.

The average hourly workweek in manufacturing from the employment report at 8:30 a.m. Friday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Manufacturers’ new orders for non-defense capital goods from the factory orders report at 10 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Monday: The Purchasing Managers Institute manufacturing index at 9:45 a.m. and the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending, each at 10 a.m.

Wednesday: The ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m., the ISM non-manufacturing survey at 10 a.m. and petroleum inventories at 10:30 a.m. .

Thursday: Jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., factory orders at 10 a.m. and the M2 money supply and Federal Reserve balance sheet each at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: The employment situation and international trade, each at 8:30 a.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 10-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and  10-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Sept. 29, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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