Live: Friday, Oct. 12, 2018

3:45 p.m. New York time

That’s a wrap for the week. On Saturday look for my discussion of economic reports and the Fed, The Week Ahead,

1:20 p.m. New York time

I have updated my JBL analysis with full results.

stock immediately, instead reserve my funds for sector diversification.

Today’s Book

The Power and Independence of the Federal Reserve

by Peter Conti-Brown

A book ripped from today’s headlines!

Since taking office President Trump has regularly praised the rising stock market as a winning outcome of his policies. History, of course, shows that a rising market can rapidly turn into a falling disaster — remember Black Monday in 1987? — and as a smart politician, the president has moved quickly to distance himself from the decline that began on Sept. 20, saying that  the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases, designed to control inflation, show the central bank has “gone crazy” and is “going loco”.

The Federal Reserve is considered by most to be independent of political branches, such as the White House. But what does that really mean?  Peter Conti-Brown, a professor of legal studies at the University of Pennsylvania, studied that independence, its origins and its workings, in this 2016 book.

More about the book

12:30 p.m. New York time

Here’s my latest near-term Elliott wave count on SPY, which tracks the S&P 500.

We’re early in the 3rd wave down of the Intermediate degree {+3}. The chart shows 30 days with 10-minute bars, and at that close-up level, I’m uncertain of the degree of the waves I’m tracking, and so have marked them with a {?}. At that degree, whatever it may be, we are in a upward 4th wave correction that will, if it is typical,


I’m not finding any other broad-market Elliott wave trades that I’m comfortable taking, outside of the various equities markets.

1:40 a.m. New York time

I have exited JBL for a loss.

11:20 a.m.. New York time

Today’s Job #1 will be to make an exit decision on my JBL position, whose options expire at the end of next week. My normal practice is to exit the Friday or Money prior to expiration.

The one earnings play on my list today is BAC, and I’m passing on it without further analysis. I entered a position on C yesterday, and don’t want to add another financial I also plan to use the day to explore other broad-markets trades based on Elliott wave analysis, looking at areas such as gold, silver, oil, interest rates and the U.S. dollar.

Here is the status of my options positions.

sym option debit share price curr % max profit net prft/shr $ option days left
C 3.24 60.65 6.1 0.21 35
EWZ 0.88 38.36 (2.3) (0.02) 35
JBL 2.00 23.65 (46.0) (0.63) 7
LEN 3.55 41.36 (9.9) (0.32) 35
SPY 3.81 276.04 12.6 0.55 35
STZ 10.53 25.74 (25.4) (2.13) 35
WBA 3.32 72.44 6.7 0.24 35

And of my shares positions.

sym share price net result % net profit $ days held
AAPL 220.54 -1.5% (3.42) 28
CHK 4.44 11.0% 0.44 28
FXI 39.92 -3.1% (1.29) 28
SPXU 37.25 -8.2% (3.31) 150
TSLA 256.61 -15.9% (48.38) 11
VNQI 52.90 -6.9% (3.91) 29

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 12, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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