Live: Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018

11:40 a.m. New York time

I have entered a short iron fly position on UPS.

11:05 a.m. New York time

I have updated the SPY analysis with results.

10:20 a.m. New York time

Using Elliott wave analysis, I’ve labeled the current Minuette wave down since the Sept. 20 high as the 5th and final wave of the series. It has satisfied the minimum requirement for such a wave, but 5ths can so surprising power, so it may have quite some distance to go.

I won’t re-enter until Wednesday, Oct. 24, at the soonest.

The SPY chart below covers 30 days with three-hour bars.


10 a.m. New York time

Having exited SPY profitably shortly after the open, my top priority will be to redo the Elliott wave analysis to determine when to roll forward to a December expiration.

It’s another heavy day for earnings announcements. My top prospect is UPS, with an implied volatility rank in the 1st quintile. (81-100).

Other symbols on the prospects list:

1st quintile (81-100): UNM, KNX

2nd quintile (61-80): TXN, GG, F, FCX, JNPR

3rd quintile (41-60): COP, T

Today’s Book

Atomic Habits

An Easy & Proven Way to Build Good Habits & Break Bad Ones

by James Clear

Here’s a secret not often spoken of in the “make a million in a week” circles of trading: Good trading is about sticking to the rules we’ve picked, and sticking to the rules is about good habits.

The author, James Clear, writes about the intersection of behavioral science and the habits that give structure to our days. When we have difficulty adopting new habits, the problem isn’t our will power but our system. 

How should I judge my trades? The wisest words on that subject that I’ve heard are these: Whether a trade makes money or loses it, if the trader followed his or her rules, then that trade was a success.

James Clear shows how to reach the point where by that standard, every trade is a success.

More about the book

Here is the status of my options positions, including SPY at the time I exited.

sym option debit share price curr % max profit net prft/shr $ option days left
C 4.00 64.40 (15.9) (0.55) 24
EWZ 1.03 39.02 (19.8) (0.17) 24
HON 5.82 150.31 8.2 0.52 24
IBM 9.39 129.32 (38.3) (2.60) 24
JNJ 5.94 138.11 (6.1) (0.34) 24
MCD 6.67 174.53 (7.6) (0.47) 24
PM 3.77 88.05 (9.9) (0.34) 24
SPY 1.67 270.95 61.7 2.69 24
STZ 6.78 214.07 19.3 1.62 24
WBA 3.95 7,735.00 (11.0) (0.39) 24

And here is the status of my shares positions:

sym share price net result % net profit $ days held
AAPL 216.91 -3.1% (7.05) 39
CHK 4.38 9.5% 0.38 39
FXI 39.45 -4.3% (1.76) 39
SPXU 39.27 -3.2% (1.29) 161
TSLA 277.60 -9.0% (27.39) 22
VNQI 52.84 -7.0% (3.97) 40

9:40 a.m. New York time

I have exited SPY for a profit.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 23, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


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