3:30 p.m. New York time
SPY has began its 2nd wave rise, as the Elliott wave count suggested it. I count it as an A wave within the 2nd wave. The best tactic would be to enter my bear position during the C wave. I shall be keeping a close on eye on it.
I shall post my weekly discussion of economic reporting, “The Week Ahead”, on Saturday.
11:25 a.m. New York time
Using Elliott wave analysis, by my count SPY continues to work its way down the final wave within the 1st wave of Minute degree {+1}. Once that is complete, then I would expect a 2nd wave to the upside, most like in the form of a Zig-Zag, to be followed by a sharp decline, a 3rd wave, to the downside.
I plan to enter SPY at some point in the 2nd wave.
The SPY chart covers 30 days with 30-minute bars.
9:50 a.m. New York time
I have two potential earnings plays in my pool this morning, and both have market capitalizations that are a bit lower than I like. I prefer to trade market caps of $100 million and greater, although I will sometimes go below that minimum in order to, for example, add a sector that I don’t yet have in my mix.
The two are CL and GT, each with implied volatility ranks in the 2nd percentile (61-80).
Also this morning, I shall take a look at the Elliott wave analysis of SPY to determine whether to re-enter my bear position.
- Today’s Book
Option Volatility and Pricing
Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques
by Sheldon Natenberg
This is the best book about how options work. It’s the book that taught me the most as I developed my trading style. It has made an invaluable contribution to my trading.
Writing with the clarity of an expert, Natenberg carries the reader of the foundations of option theory through hedging and volatility, risk analysis, position management and much more.
The author, Sheldon Natenberg, is a veteran market maker of both of equity options on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and commodity options on the Chicago Board of Trade.
He is presently on the training staff of the CBOE.
His book is always close at hand every day that I trade.
Here’s where my options positions stand this morning.
| sym | option debit | share price | curr % max profit | net prft/shr $ | option days left |
| C | 4.03 | 4.24 | (16.8) | (0.58) | 21 |
| EWZ | 1.04 | 39.48 | (20.9) | (0.18) | 21 |
| GILD | 5.75 | 67.82 | 7.0 | 0.43 | 56 |
| HON | 6.80 | 147.21 | (7.3) | (0.46) | 21 |
| IBM | 9.83 | 125.60 | (44.8) | (3.04) | 21 |
| JNJ | 5.88 | 138.11 | (5.0) | (0.28) | 21 |
| MCD | 7.24 | 174.05 | (16.8) | (1.04) | 21 |
| MSFT | 8.04 | 107.47 | 6.5 | 0.56 | 56 |
| PM | 4.39 | 89.85 | (28.0) | (0.96) | 21 |
| STZ | 6.45 | 209.58 | 23.2 | 1.95 | 21 |
| UPS | 9.05 | 106.34 | (10.4) | (0.85) | 56 |
| WBA | 3.54 | 75.31 | 0.6 | 0.02 | 21 |
And my shares positions.
| sym | share price | net result % | net profit $ | days held |
| AAPL | 217.48 | -2.9% | (6.48) | 42 |
| CHK | 3.78 | -5.5% | (0.22) | 42 |
| FXI | 39.06 | -5.2% | (2.15) | 42 |
| SPXU | 41.14 | 1.4% | 0.58 | 164 |
| TSLA | 317.86 | 4.2% | 12.87 | 25 |
| VNQI | 52.79 | -7.1% | (4.02) | 43 |
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Oct. 26, 2018
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.L
