Live: Thursday, Nov. 1, 2018

3:30 p.m. New York time

I have updated the analyses for today’s four exits with results. They are AMGN, C, IBM and VNQI.

2:05 p.m. New York time

I’m passing on an SBUX earnings play without analysis. My structure would be an iron fly, and the at-the-money options strike prices are overly far from the stock price for my taste.

1:45 p.m. New York time

I have exited a position in AMGN to free up funds and entered a new position on SPY.

10:50 a.m. New York time

My exit orders on C, IBM and VNQI have been filled, each for a loss.

It looks to me as though SPY has completed the minimum requirement to consider Elliott wave 2 at the Minute degree {+1} to be complete, and that means it’s time to hop back in with a fresh position in order to catch wave 3 down. I shall enter a position today.

The SPY chart covers 30 days with 30-minute bars.


10:20 a.m. New York time

This is a day to clean holdings.

I have placed two exit orders, C because the stock goes ex-dividend on Friday and I don’t want to be assigned, which incurs fees, and IBM because it is significantly out of the money on the downside, and I would just as soon take the loss and free the money for other trades.

And I am exiting VNQI, a shares position, to free up cash.

I shall continue looking closely at SPY for a re-entry point.


Today’s Book

The Behavioral Investor

by Daniel Crosby

Crosby, whose latest book ranks at the top of the Investment and Business sales chart, considers the role of psychology in what we traders do, placing and managing investments. 

The Behavioral Investor takes on a tour of human nature and then drills down to the specifics of how to construct a portfolio.

“Wealth, truly considered,” says the book description, “has at least as much to do with psychological as financial wellbeing.” It’s a book with ideas worth considering as we continue to improve our trading skills.

More about the book

My best earnings prospect for the day is SBUX, with an implied volatility rank in the top percentile. I shall consider it for a trade, if I can find the cash. My trading account is almost entirely committed.

The other earnings possibilities for the day are:

1st quintile (81-100): AAPL, NWL, STX, WU and X

2nd quintile (61-80): BABA, CVX, DUK and MET

4th quintile (21-40): TTPH

A snapshot of my current options positions.

sym option debit share price beyond profit zone curr % max profit net prft/shr $ option days left
AMGN 8.44 192.51 13.7 1.34 15
C 3.59 65.79 low (4.1) (0.14) 15
EWZ 1.28 40.66 (48.8) (0.42) 15
GILD 5.52 69.07 10.7 0.66 50
HON 6.28 144.68 low 0.9 0.06 15
IBM 10.00 115.53 low (47.3) (3.21) 15
JNJ 6.04 140.85 high (7.9) (0.44) 15
MCD 7.71 176.00 high (24.4) (1.51) 15
MSFT 7.68 106.25 10.7 0.92 50
PM 3.64 88.66 high (6.1) (0.21) 15
STZ 9.48 199.60 low (12.9) (1.08) 15
UPS 8.82 106.89 (7.6) (0.62) 50
WBA 4.71 80.18 high (32.3) (1.15) 15

And my shares positions.

sym share price net result % net profit $ days held
AAPL 218.24 -2.6% (5.72) 48
CHK 3.54 -11.5% (0.46) 48
FXI 40.27 -2.3% (0.94) 48
SPXU 38.66 -4.7% (1.90) 170
TSLA 342.48 12.3% 37.49 31
VNQI 53.86 -5.2% (2.95) 49

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 1, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


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