Live: Friday, Nov. 2, 2018

3:40 p.m. New York time

That wraps of trading for what proved to be a busy week. I’ll post my weekly discussion of economic reporting, The Week Ahead, on Saturday.

11:15 a.m. New York time

I have updated the STZ analysis with results.

Today’s Book

Market Timing with Moving Averages

The Anatomy and Performance of Trading Rules

by Valeriy Zakamulin

Late Thursday evening I posted to Private Trader an essay on a significant moving average signal on the S&P 500. MAs (as we call them in the biz) are a fascinating tool, with a very long history dating well back into the era of manual calculation.

Zakamulin is a professor of finance at the University of Agder School of Business and Law, located in Norway. In his deep dive into the world of moving averages, he provides a foundation of rule-based market timing. 

More about the book

10 a.m. New York time

I have exited STZ. At this time I anticipate no other trades today.

9:50 a.m. New York time

I intend to exit STZ today to avoid an ex-dividend on Monday, which increases the chance of assignment.

The one prospective trade coinciding with earnings PCG. With IV rank in the 3rd quintile, it’s not a serious choice, and I am laying it aside.

I posted an essay last night about a bear signal from a very slow-moving indicator that I’ve written about before: The I Hate Stocks trading indicator. It can be read here.

The status of my current options positions.

sym option debit share price beyond profit zone curr % max profit net prft/shr $ option days left
EWZ 1.72 41.81 high (100.0) (0.86) 14
GILD 5.42 70.59 12.3 0.76 49
HON 5.99 145.35 low 5.5 0.35 14
JNJ 6.35 140.99 high (13.4) (0.75) 14
MCD 7.48 174.51 high (20.6) (1.28) 14
MSFT 7.44 107.13 13.5 1.16 49
PM 3.44 87.97 (0.3) (0.01) 14
STZ 8.63 275.10 high (2.7) (0.23) 14
SPY 4.68 201.62 (10.9) (0.46) 49
UPS 8.27 106.84 (0.9) (0.07) 49
WBA 4.67 79.92 high (31.2) (1.11) 14

And of my shares positions.

sym share price net result % net profit $ days held
AAPL 213.33 -4.7% (10.63) 49
CHK 3.64 -9.0% (0.36) 49
FXI 41.74 1.3% 0.53 49
SPXU 37.23 -8.2% (3.33) 171
TSLA 345.72 13.4% 40.73 32

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 2, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


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