Live: Monday, Nov. 5, 2018

10:15 a.m. New York time

I have no earnings plays that I care to take from today’s seven prospects. I’m looking for stocks with market caps above $100 billion (although I’ll fudge that figure) and implied volatility ranks in the 1st quintile (81-100). None of the seven fulfills both requirements, and so I shall reject them all.

The prospects are:

1st quintile (81-100): OAS, GLUU and HL

2nd quintile: CVS and LLY

3rd quintile: AES and ATRS

LLY is the sole prospect with a qualifying market cap, and its IV rank is in the 70s.

Today’s Book

Thinking Fast and Slow

By Daniel Kahneman

This 2012 best-seller contains a great truth that is important to traders like us. Trading is psychology. How you think determines what  trades you make. If a trader treats the markets as a rational machine, to be understood in detail, then you will tend toward a certain sort of analysis — perhaps looking at the underlying business and finances of a company. That would be Daniel Kahneman’s slow thinking. If we rely on intuition, on the feel of of a trade, our analysis will look quite different — perhaps the patterns on a chart that engage our marvelous human pattern recognition systems. The ancient Greeks lived by the aphorism, “Know yourself”. Traders today will profit if they live by those words as well.

More about the book

The status of my current options positions.

sym option debit share price beyond profit zone curr % max profit net prft/shr $ option days left
EWZ 1.60 41.35 high (86.0) (0.74) 11
GILD 5.30 69.17 14.2 0.88 46
HON 5.08 147.17 low 19.9 1.26 11
JNJ 7.01 142.09 high (25.2) (1.41) 11
MCD 8.09 179.24 high (30.5) (1.89) 11
MSFT 7.45 106.43 13.4 1.15 46
PM 3.89 89.60 high (13.4) (0.46) 11
SPY 3.91 271.69 7.3 0.31 46
UPS 8.90 106.36 low (8.5) (0.70) 46
WBA 4.60 79.87 high (29.2) (1.04) 11

And of my shares positions.

sym share price net result % net profit $ days held
AAPL 199.80 -10.8% (24.17) 52
CHK 3.80 -5.0% (0.20) 52
FXI 40.98 -0.6% (0.23) 52
SPXU 38.70 -4.6% (1.86) 174
TSLA 331.25 8.6% 26.26 35

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 5, 2018

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.


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