The Week Ahead: Industry, retail, prices and a holiday

In economic reporting, it will be a week of bread-and-butter basics: Industry, retail and the cost of buying the products of those systems. It will also be a short week for traders.

The industrial production report will be published Friday at 9:15 a.m. New York time, and the retail sales on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. The consumer price index will be reported on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m.

Today’s Book

Bad Blood

Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup

by John Carreyrou

The tech giants of the Silicon Valley are the bread and butter of trading today. Yet they were once startups, the risky private companies backed by risk-taking private funds hoping to make it big. And so the cycle goes. A few of today’s risky startups will be tomorrows tech giants, the bread and butter of future trading, but most will stumble and fall aside on the complex path from a small beginning to outsized success.

John Carreyrou, an investigative reporter with The Wall Street Journal, takes us inside one of the most spectacular stumbles in recent years of a Silicon Valley startup. Theranos Inc. was started in Palo Alto, California with the goal of revolutionizing that most mundane of medical experiences, the blood test.

The company was valued in 2013 at more than $10 billion, and its CEO, Elizabeth Holmes, was talked about as the new Steve Jobs, but after Carreyrou, writing in The Wall Street Journal, questioned the technology, the company under pressure from medical authorities and the federal regulators quickly fell into decline and was close to bankruptcy.

In this book Carreyrou reveals the hard truths behind the dreams. Bad Blood is currently ranked #28 in Business & Money books, and #19 in that section for Kindle eBooks.

More about the book

Fed Gov. Lael Brainard takes to the podium on Tuesday at 10 a.m. to discuss artificial intelligence and finance at a conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia.

Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles will testify before Congress about financial regulation. He’ll talk to the House Financial Services Committeeon Wednesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday, each day at 10 a.m. The twin appearances are semiannual events.

Leading indicators (in descending order of importance):

The interest rate spread between 10-year Treasuries and the federal funds rate, reported continually during market hours.

The M2 money supply, at 4:30 p.m. Thursday.

The S&P 500 index, reported continually during market hours.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment, from the jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. Thursday.

Events arranged by day:

Tuesday: A speech by Fed Gov. Lael Brainard at 10 a.m. and the Treasury budget at 2 p.m.

Wednesday: Consumer price index at 8:30 a.m., and U.S. House testimony by Fed Vice Chairman Quarles at 10 a.m.

Thursday: Jobless claimsretail sales, import and export prices, the Empire State manufacturing survey of conditions in New York and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank business outlook survey of conditions in the mid-Atlantic region, each at 8:30 a.m., business inventories and U.S. Senate testimony by Fed Vice Chairman Quarles, each at 10 a.m., petroleum inventories at 11 a.m., and the Federal Reserve balance sheet and the M2 money supply, each at 4:30 p.m.

Friday: Industrial production at 9:15 a.m. and the Treasury Department’s international capital report at 4 p.m.

I also keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index, updated daily, and the 10-year implied inflation rate which is the difference between the yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes and  10-year Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS).

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Nov. 10, 2018


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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