XRT Analysis

SPDR S&P Retail (XRT)

Update 4/4/2019: I exited XRT for a debit of $0.27, or 51% of maximum potential profit.

Shares declined by 1.5% (-$0.69) over 30 days, or a -18% annual rate. The options position yielded 103.7% (+$0.28) for a +1,262% annual rate.

On March 5 I entered a short iron condor spread on XRT, using options that trade for the last time 73 days later, on May 17. The premium is a $0.55 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $45.82.

The profit zone for this position is between $49.55 on the upside and $39.55 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 37.

Premium: $0.55 Expire OTM
XRT-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 52.00 97.0% 3
Break-even 49.55 89.5% 10.5
Short 49.00 82.0% 18
Short 42.00 80.0% 18
Break-even 39.55 85.5% 13
Long 39.00 91.0% 8

The premium is 18% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 4.5:1.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 4, 2019


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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