Live: Friday, April 19, 2019

10:20 a.m. New York time

DIS remains above the profit zone, and STNE below, each short iron condor having moved out of range upon news reports.

There are seven days before the positions reach their mandatory exit if profitable, and 28 days until expiration.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 19, 2019

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CGC Analysis

Canopy Growth Corp. (CGC)

Update 5/16/2019My short iron condor position on CGC reached 50% of maximum potential profit, and line with my trading rules, I took to the profit. I exited for a $0.49 debit, leaving $0.48 of my entry credit as profit. Shares rose by $2.20 during the lifespan of the position. On the chart, the share price rose from my $43.09 entry to a peak of $52.74, and then declined to the exit price of $45.29.

Shares saw a net rise of $5.1% over the 29 days of the position, or a $64% annual rate. The options produced a $98.0% return for a +1,232.93% annual rate.


This is a roll forward to a June 21 expiration of a position exited April 17.

I have entered a short iron condor spread on CGC, using options that trade for the last time 65 days hence, on June 21. The premium is a $0.97 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $43.09.

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CGC Analysis

Canopy Growth Corp. (CGC)

Update 4/17/2019: I exited my short iron condor on CGC, 29 days after entering the position and nine days prior to mandatory exit when the options have 21 days left before they expire. The implied volatility at exit was 46. I exited for a $0.62 debit with shares at $42.86.

Shares declined 6.7%, or $3.08. during the holding period, or an 84% annual rate. The options position produced a 117.7% return, $0.73, for a +1,482% annual rate.


On March 19 I entered a short iron condor spread on CGC, using options that trade for the last time 59 days later, on May 17. The premium is a $1.35 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $45.93

The implied volatility rank (IVR) at entry stood at 47.

Premium: $1.35 Expire OTM
CGC-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 60.00 91.0% 13
Break-even 56.35 86.5% 18
Short 55.00 82.0% 23
Puts
Short 37.50 76.0% 17
Break-even 33.85 82.0% 12.5
Long 32.50 88.0% 8

The premium is 28% of the width of the position’s wings.

The risk/reward ratio is 2.6:1.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 17, 2019

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Live: Tuesday, April 16, 2019

5:45 p.m. New York time

No fill on CGC.

11:10 a.m. New York time

I’m making another attempt to exit my iron condor on CGC. The position sunk to a debit of $0.76, which is 43% of maximum potential profit. My goal at or above 50%, and so I set the order bid at $0.67.

DIS, after last week’s large upward gap, is trading at $130, which is above the upside breakeven of $126 but within the wing, which provides some shelter up to $135. With 10 days left until mandatory exit (21 days prior to expiration), I’m happy to let things play out without any adjustment to the position.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 16, 2019

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Live: Friday, April 12, 2019

1:10 p.m. New York time

No fill on my CGC exit order.

12:05 a.m. New York time

I entered an exit order on CGC, which is at 44% of maximum potential profit. The exit bid is for a $0.67 debit, or 51% of max.

DIS opened 10% higher than the prior day’s close, from $116.60 to $127.91, challenging the upper side of my iron condor, after the company announced the launch date and pricing of its new Disney+ streaming service.

Thanks to the wide profit zone dictated by my new trading rules, the higher open was only $1.91 above the upside breakeven point, suggesting a good chance of recovery back to profitability in the 35 days left before expiration.

Under my rules, I exit 21 days before expiration, which is two weeks from now. In this case, whether I honor that rule or not will depend upon the chart.

I checked out the advisability of adjusting the unchallenged side but judged the challenge to be insufficiently strong to warrant action at this time.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 12, 2019

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TWLO Analysis

Twilio Inc. (TWLO)

Update 4/26/2019: I exited TWLO profitably with a $1.84 debit, 21 days prior to expiration. The profit was 12% of its maximum potential, far short of my 50% target. The position produced a return of $0.25. Shares closed at $132.31, within the profit range.

Shares rose by 5.2%, or $6.49, over 15 days, a $126% annual rate. The options position produced a 13.6% return for a 331% annual rate.


I have entered a short iron condor spread on TWLO, using options that trade for the last time 36 days hence, on May 17. The premium is a $2.09 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $125.82.

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EWZ Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ)

Update 4/11/2019I exited EWZ for a credit of $0.36, or 50.7% of maximum potential profit.

Shares rose by 1.1% over 13 days, or a +31% annual rate. The options position produced a +102.8% yield for a +2,886% annual rate.


On March 29 I  entered a short iron condor spread on EWZ, using options that trade for the last time 49 days later, on May 17. The premium is a $0.73 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $41.33.

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Live: Thursday, April 11, 2019

11:55 a.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor on TWLO. Analysis to follow.

10:15 a.m. New York time

EWZ exit order filled at $0.36; full analysis to come.

9:40 a.m. New York time

I’ve again entered an exit order for my iron condor on EWZ, at $0.36. See Wednesday’s Live feed.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 11, 2019

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Live: Wednesday, April 10, 2019

4:45 p.m. New York time

No fills in my exit orders.

2:35 p.m. New York time

My short iron condor on GDXJ (c+39 c-36 p-30 c+27) has moved to 40% of maximum potential profit at a debit of $0.36, and I’ve put in an exit order at $0.31, 50% of max.

10:45 a.m. New York time

My EWZ position, a short iron condor (c+52 c-46 p-36 p+30), is at 45% of maximum potential profit, with a $0.40 debit, and I’ve entered an exit order at a $0.36 debit, which is 51% of maximum potential profit. No guarantee of a fill, of course.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 10, 2019

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