Live: Thursday, Aug. 1, 2019

1:40 p.m. New York time

I’ve updated Thought Experiment: An IBM Earnings Play with results and conclusions.

1 p.m. New York time

My paper-trade on IBM, part of a thought experiment on hedging earnings plays, triggered an exit, for a $2.38 debit with shares at $151.88. I’ll update the analysis shortly with full results.

I’ve made three swap outs on the managed stocks account. I exited FXE and GLD on sell signals. I entered XLE and XHB, in the energy and real-estate sector, respectively. Here’s the new line-up:

sym slot # price $ sector
XLE 1 62.11 energy
XLV 2 92.21 health care
XBI 3 86.76 biotech
XHB 4 42.07 real estate
XOP 5 25.16 energy

The FXE exit credit was $105.19, producing a 0.8% (80 cents) loss over one day, or a -276% annual rate.

The GLD exit credit was $133.41 , producing a -1.1% ($1.45) loss over one day for a -392% annual rate.

The new line-up leaves me overweight in energy, with two positions.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 1, 2019


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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