Live: Monday, Aug. 5, 2019

2:20 p.m. New York time

By the rule book on Tuesday I’ll start entering my options positions that expire September 20. Tuesday is 45 days prior to expiration.

My managed shares positions had been reduced to one by Friday’s sell signals, executed this morning, and a sell signal this morning removed the last position from the board.

Sold are EWM, XBI, XHB and XOP, with these results:

  • EWM, bought $28.55 on Aug. 1, sold $27.95 on Aug.  5, $-0.60 loss. Shares declined by 2.1% over three days for a -256% annual rate.
  • XBI, bought $86.76 on July 31, sold $82.08 on Aug. 5, $-4.68. Shares declined by 5.4% over five days for a -394% annual rate.
  • XHB, bought $42.07 on Aug. 1, sold $40.31 on Aug. 5, $-1.76 loss. Shares declined by -4.2% over four days for a -382% annual rate.
  • XOP, bought $25.16 on July 31, sold $22.43 on Aug. 5, $-2.73 loss. Shares declined by 10.9% over five days for a -792% annual rate.

The positions prepped for entry were CORN, GLD and XLU, and I added FXE for the position vacated this morning.

But I’m passing on those trades for now, given the Sturm und Drang in the markets after China allowed its currency to weaken.

As the economist Paul Krugman tweeted this morning, “Trump’s latest tariffs may look like the world trade equivalent of the assassination of Franz Ferdinand — the event that tripped an uneasy situation into all-out trade war.” I mean, who wants to hold shares as the guns of August are rolling into place?

Speaking of Sturm und Drang, my early results with this experimental method have produced way more churn than I anticipated. Could be intrinsic to all markets. Could be an artifact of this time and these markets. I’ll use the time-out enforced by the heightening tariff war to think about ways to smooth the signaling.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 5, 2019


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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