10:40 a.m. New York time

I ran my list of 90+ exchange-traded funds looking for something to fill the empty space in my managed shares portfolio. I rejected energy plays, since that was based on news and will likely be followed by a slight decline to correct the initial panicky buying spree. I have two international holdings and am reluctant to add a third. The only thing else that interested me among the new signals was agricultural commodities, specifically cane sugar. And so I bought shares in CANE. Here’s the line-up:

sym	slot #	entry $/share	sector
BOTZ	1	19.32	robotics
CANE	2	6.55	commodity-sugar
EWM	3	28.25	int-malaysia
UNG	4	19.17	energy
UAE	5	14.18	int-uae

10:05 a.m. New York time

My short iron condor position on XOP — the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production exchange-traded fund — rose above its profit zone after a weekend attack against oil processing facilities in Saudi Arabia reduced production by half.

After opening hight this morning, XOP has declined. The price is 0.47 days above the profit-zone boundary, as calculated by the rate of change metric, and under my rules I need take no action until the distance is one day or greater. The position is 32 days away from expiration.

In my managed shares portfolio, I have two long-share positions that give exposure to the fossil fuel sector: UAE, which tracks stocks in the United Arab Emirates, and UNG, which tracks the price of natural gas. UNG rose after the attack, and UAE held steady.

My managed share holdings:

sym	slot #	entry $/share	sector
BOTZ	1	19.32	robotics
(empty)	2
EWM	3	28.25	int-malaysia
UNG	4	19.17	energy
UAE	5	14.18	int-uae

I was intending to try something new in the empty slot. We’re against getting some earnings announcements, and I wanted to to try a long earnings play as a part of the mix. FDX publishes earnings after the closing bell on Tuesday, Sept. 17.

My rules for selecting earnings plays run like this: The symbol must have a four star rating or better from Morningstar, a rating of 3 or better from Zacks, and a Zacks expected surprise prediction (ESP) of zero or greater (excluding negative ESP scores, which denote a negative surprise expectation).

On Friday FDX’s Zacks rating was 3, but the analysts dropped it to 4 over the weekend, so I’m left without a trade. I’ll make a hypothetical “paper” trade, and see how that goes.

Also, I’ll attempt to fill the empty slot with an ETF today.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, September 16, 2019

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.