TLT Analysis

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Update 11/29/2019I exited my short iron condor position on TLT on the 21st day prior to expiration, in keeping with my normal practice. The exit price was a $1.44 debit, 11.1% of maximum potential profit returning a $0.18 profit, with shares trading at $140.07, up $3.10 from the price at entry.

TLT’s share price began to rise three days after I entered the position and continued the uptrend for 14 trading days, placing it in the money on the call side but still profitable because of the long hedge. The implied volatility rank declined during the holding period to 34.7%, down 4.8 points from the entry level.

Shares  rose 2.3% over 24 days, or a +34% annual rate. The options position produced a 12.5% return for a +190% annual rate.


I have entered a short iron condor spread on TLT, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on December 20. The premium is a $1.62 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $136.97.

The profit zone for this position is between $141.62 on the upside and $130.62 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 39.5.

Premium: $1.62 Expire OTM
TLT-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 145.00 90.0% 10
Break-even 141.62 79.5% 20.5
Short 140.00 69.0% 31
Puts
Short 134.00 71.0% 29
Break-even 130.62 81.0% 19
Long 129.00 91.0% 9

The premium is 32.4% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 3.4% move to the upside and a 4.9% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 8.3%

The risk/reward ratio is 2.1:1, with maximum risk of $338 and maximum reward of $162 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, November 5, 2019

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.

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