TLT Analysis

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)

Update 12/27/2019: I have exited my short iron condor position on TLT for a $0.36 debit, a profit of $0.37, with shares trading for $137.51,  down $1.32 from their level at entry. The exit price was at 50.7% of maximum potential profit, slightly above my 50% goal.

The underlying TLT stock rose for three days after entry and then began a gentle decline that lasted until December 19, when it began an equally gentle rise. The price remained within the profit zone throughout the holding period. The implied volatility rank stood at 22.5% at the exit, down 21.3 points from its level at entry.

Shares declined by 1% over 18 days, or a -19% annual rate. The options position produced a 102.8% return for a 2,084% annual rate.

I have entered a short iron condor spread on TLT, using options that trade for the last time 39 days hence, on January 17. The premium is a $0.73 credit and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $138.83.

The profit zone for this position is between $144.73 on the upside and $131.73 on the downside.

The implied volatility rank (IVR) stands at 43.8%.

Premium: $0.73 Expire OTM
TLT-iron condor Strike Odds Delta
Long 147.00 90.0% 10
Break-even 144.73 85.0% 15.5
Short 144.00 80.0% 21
Short 134.00 81.0% 20
Break-even 131.73 86.0% 15
Long 131.00 91.0% 10

The premium is 24.3% of the width of the position’s wings.

The profit zone covers a 4.2% move to the upside and a 5.4% move to the downside of the entry price, for total coverage of 9.6%

The risk/reward ratio is 3.1:1, with maximum risk of $227 and maximum reward of $73 per contract.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 9, 2019


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at

One thought on “TLT Analysis

Comments are closed.