10:55 a.m. New York time

I exited three provisions from my portfolio guided by analyst revisions and upgrades, and entered one two position, leaving funds to enter two positions on the table for later.

AEIS went for a $64.75 credit, a profit of $3.31 per share, producing a 5.4% return over three days, or a $655% annual rate.

AEL was sold for a $29.89 credit, a profit of 91 cents per share, producing a 3.1% return over 14 days for a +82% annual rate.

BMCH brought in a $29.50 credit, a profit of 26 cents per shore, producing a 0.9% return over 17 days for a 195 annual rate.

The new kid on the screen is IBP, which I entered for a debit of $71.70 per share.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 6, 2019

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3:30 p.m. New York time

The algorithm placed AMED onto the overnight Upgrades and Revisions screen, and I entered a position within the corresponding portfolio. The entry price was a debit of $165.65 per share.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 5, 2019

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12:05 p.m. New York time

Two shares positions, IBP and MGRC, dropped off of the Upgrades and Revisions screen, and I exited each for a profit.

I added SNE to the Revisions portfolio for a $65.26 debit.

IBP sold for $69.37, an 86 cent gain per share. The position produced a 1.2% return over 22 for a +21% annual rate.

MGRC went $74.57, a gain of $1.53 per share. The position produced a 2.1% return over two days, or a +382% annual rate.

RH had dropped off of the Revisions screen earlier, but I held on to capture earnings after Monday’s closing bell. The symbol remains off of the Revisions screen but continues to appear on the Momentum screen. So I’m hanging on to the position and will consider adding the following to my rules:

A positions that drops off of the principal screen but continues to appear on a secondary screen that the trader is following can, at the trader’s discretion, continue to be held until it drops off of the secondary screen.

In the case of my operations, for the present at least, I’ve chosen Upgrades and Revisions as my principal screen because it’s forward looking, based as it is on analysts’ efforts to forecast earnings.

I’m continuing Momentum as by secondary screen. It is backward looking — how quickly the price of a stock been rising over several time frames. But its appearance on the Momentum screen implies that the uptrend is continuing.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 4, 2019

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1:45 p.m. New York time

Today’s screen for the upgrades and revisions portfolio produced two new symbols. I entered positions on both, AEIS at $61.44 per share and CNXM at $14.49.

In my options holdings, the underlying for my short iron condor on APA moved below the profit zone. It, along with XOP, will trigger an exit whenever they return to profitability, no matter how small. Meanwhile, expiration is Dec. 20, and I shall continue to hold.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 3, 2019

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12:25 p.m. New York time

I’ve entered a shares position in MGRC for a $73.04 debit and in MOMO for a $37.35 debit.

12:05 p.m. New York time

Shares trading:

No changes to my momentum portfolio or my income portfolio.

In the upgrades and revisions portfolio, RH has dropped off the screen. However, I shall hold it through the earnings announcement after the closing bell on Dec. 4. Two new positions have shown up on the screen, MGRC and MOMO. I shall enter positions on both today.

11:40 a.m. New York time

Friday, as I’ve noted, was management day, the day, 21 days prior to expiration, when I exit all profitable positions. Because of the Thanksgiving Day holiday, I moved my management of positions to today. And…. There’s nothing to manage.

Both of my remaining short iron condor positions are unprofitable to a large degree at the moment. The percent of maximum potential profit is in negative territory, -124.8% for APA and -63.8% for XOP. Both are in the energy sector. APA remains within its profit zone at expiration. XOP is below the zone.

At this point my APA and XOP positions go into sudden death mode. This means that I exit a position when it shows a profit, no matter how small.

My rules also require that I exit losing positions whenever they are more than a day away from profitability based on the rate of change metric. I’m modifying that rule this time, as a an experiment. I’ve gotten the impression with some trades that I would have had better results — smaller losses or a return to profit — if I had waited until the week of expiration to exit.  After all, time decay continues to work in my favor, and a lot can happen in three weeks. So my plan is monitor the losing positions, exit if they become profitable, and otherwise hold them until the week of their expiration on Dec. 20.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 2, 2019

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