Live: Tuesday, December 7, 2019

2 p.m. New York time

I’ve updated the list of shares trades at the bottom of this post with results analysis for the positions I exited.

1:40 p.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor position on EEM. That completes my entry into options positions using puts and calls that expire on February 21. Next step is to update the stock trades I posted this morning with the results analysis for positions I exited.

1:25 p.m. New York time

FXE is a pass. Given the prices and strikes on the grid, the best I can do is a premium that is 20% of the average width of the iron condor’s wings. That’ not enough potential win to make up for the risk.

1:20 p.m. New York time

The XLI trade wraps up the 30%+ IVR prospects. Some of the positions I entered earlier have already seen a rope implied volatility, a good thing for a short iron condor position. I have two possibilities in the IVRU 25% to 29% range: FXE and EEM. The FXE fund tracks the Euro, and EEM is foreign markets. I’ll analyze both, and then that will be a wrap for the options.

1:15 p.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor position on XLI.

12:05 p.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor position on XBI.

That wraps up my prospects with an implied volatility rank of 30% or greater. After a breakfast break, I’ll see what’s attractive down to an IVR of 25%.

11:50  a.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor position on XLV.

The next down on the implied volatility rank list is USO, which is oil. I’m going to pass, given the uncertainties in the Middle East.

11:35 a.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor position on TLT.

11:20 a.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor position on GLD.

11:05 a.m. New York time

I’ve entered a short iron condor position on XLY, expiring in February.

10:40 a.m. New York time

This is entry day in my options cycle, the day I open short iron condor positions using options that expire on February 21. The routine of the cycle goes like this: Enter 45 days before expiration, sell at 50% of maximum potential profit, sell the remaining profitable positions 21 days prior to expiration (January 21), and hang on to the unprofitable positions until the turn profitable or until the are close to expiration.

The entry is complicated by one remaining unprofitable position built from the XLY options that expire  January 17. It is within the profit zone, but is not yet profit, and so I am hanging on to it, although it soaks up cash that might be used profitably for February expirations.

In stocks, the Zacks algorithm wiped out all but one of my Momentum holdings, although three found spots on the Bench because of their “strong buy” rating and one was added to the Growth Portfolio, which also saw three more additions.

Given the magnitude of the changes, I’ve tightened the Bench rules to allow only stocks with a #1 ranking from Zacks in order to free funds for the additions.

In the Genetics Portfolio, one is out, two  are in.

The trades and transfers (I’ll add results analysis of the exits later today):

  • Growth
    • Exits
      • NSIT for a $71.51 credit, up $0.06 from the entry price, producing a 14.5% return over 61 days for a +87% annual rate.
      • TX, a $21.44 credit, down 79 cents from entry. The exit resulted in a -3.6% loss over one days, or a -1,297% annual rate.
    • Entries
      • AMED for a $167.48 debit
      • LHCG, a $137.50 debit
      • MKSI, a $106.99 debit
    • Transfers in
      • FORM, from the Momentum Portfolio
  • Momentum
    • Exits
      • ACA for a $45.37 credit, up 4 cents from the entry price, resulting in a +0.1% return over one day for a +32% annual rate.
      • MBT, a $10.38 credit, up 2 cents from entry producing a 0.2% return over one day for a +70% annual rate.
    • Entries
      • ENPH, a $28.83 debit
      • ESTE, a $7.03 debit
      • HELE, a $182.18 debit
      • PFGC, a $52.10 debit
      • SYNA, a $69.55 debit
      • TALO, a $30.99 debit
    • Transfers in
      • CNXM duplicates a Growth Portfolio holding.
    • Transfers out
      • FORM, to the Growth Portfolio
      • DQ, JD and NGLOY to the Bench
  • Genetics
    • Exit
      • GH for a $78.80 credit, down $3.86 from the entry price. The decline was a $4.7% loss over 18 days, or a -95% annual rate.
    • Entries
      • CLLS for a $16.74 debit
      • INO, a $3.12 debit
  • Bench
    • Exits
      • OESX for a $3.37 credit, a 12-cent gain over the entry price, showing a $3.7% return over 12 days for a +112% annual rate.
      • BMY, a $63.28 credit, which is 46 cents below what I paid at entry, resulting in a -.7% loss over 21 days, or a -13% annual rate.
      • LPLA, a $93.59 credit, up 82 cents from entry, producing a 0.9% return over four das for a +81% annual rate.
    • Transfers in
      • BYD, STM from Growth; DQ, JD, NGLOY from Momentum

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 7, 2020


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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