Live: Wednesday, March 4, 2020

12:25 p.m. New York time

I’ve exited my short iron condor position on XBI for a small profit and have updated the analysis with results.

11:25 a.m. New York time

Here’s my current Elliott wave count of the S&P 500 (2-hour bars).

Screen Shot 2020-03-04 at 8.25.48 AM

The wave numbering works like this: On the descending side, no subscript for the Intermediate level, {-1} for Minor and {-2} for Minuette, and on the ascending side, {+1} for Primary and {+2} for Cycle.

The ongoing A-B-C pattern to the right are waves within a Minor counter-trend corrective wave (a 2nd wave). The larger trend is down.

9:45 a.m. New York time

I have exited lot 3 of my SPY short bear call spreads. This was the “March Mistake” position that I mistakenly entered as a March 20 expiration, when I had intended to use the next month’s series, expiring April 17. Under my rules, any position with less than 21 days to go before expiration is to be exited whenever it shows a profit. The lot 3 position, with 16 days to go, was profitable, and so I followed the rule. Results to come soon.

I shall replace it with a position expiring April 17, perhaps IWM or QQQ, to avoid the U.S. tax code’s wash sale rule.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, March 4, 2020


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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