Live: Tuesday, April 14, 2020

10:15 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 has resumed its rise after several days within a sideways range. It has exceeded its high of April 12 and as I write has set a high so far today of 2823.

What does it mean? The resumption of the rise is the final movement of the upward correction that began March 22. Once it is complete, then the S&P 500 will decline below 2174.

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise signals the beginning of the 5th wave of Minuette degree within the Minor 5th wave within the Intermediate C wave. When the Minuette 5th is complete, that will also end the Minor 5th and the Intermediate C. With the completion of the 3rd wave have redone the channel, and the result suggests an upward target of 2900. However, the Minuette 5th wave has met all of the requirements in Elliott wave theory and so could reverse to the downside at any time.

Screen Shot 2020-04-14 at 7.09.01 AM

What is the alternative? The reversal to the upside could be a continuation of wave 4 of Minuette degree as it traces a complex correction, such as a double zigzag, although there are other alternative correction patterns. A reversal to the downside with a gap would give this interpretation less credence.

What about my trades? I’m continuing to hold my three short bear call options spreads on SPY: Lots 12, 13 and 14, all expiring May 15. (The lot numbers link to the entry analyses.)

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 14, 2020


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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