Live: Friday, April 24, 2020

10:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 pierced the upper boundary of its channel ceiling yesterday and continues the opening stages of the resumption of its decline following completion of an upward correction.

What does it mean? The decline will carry the price down to the lower 2100s or below that level, perhaps significantly so.

What does Elliott wave theory say? I’ve placed the end of Primary wave 2 to the upside at 2885 achieved on April 16. The price declined to 2717.25 on April 24, the end of a small degree 1st wave in the early stages of an Intermediate 1st wave with a Primary 3rd wave, both declining the outset of the middle section of the Cycle 1st wave down that began February 19.

Screen Shot 2020-04-24 at 7.36.15 AM

What is the alternative? The Primary 3rd has yet to show much vigor in its decline, creeping cautiously below the channel ceiling. It is conceivable (although barely) that the Intermediate C wave of the Primary 2nd wave is developing into something more complex than a zigzag.

What about my trades? Today is management day, the day I sell my profitable options positions. None of my three short bear call options spread positions on SPY are profitable at this point, so I shall make no trades. The options are 21 days away from expiration on May 15, which gives the price time to pick up the pace of its decline. Here are links to the entry analyses of the three trades, Lots 12, 13 and 14.

Terminology. Here are some links to information about some of the technical jargon I use.

On the charts, waves have a subscript showing the degree above or below the Intermediate degree. Here are the subscripts and the degree each represents:

  • {+3} Supercycle
  • {+2} Cycle
  • {+1} Primary
  • No subscript: Intermediate
  • {-1} Minor
  • {-2} Minute
  • {-3} Minuette

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 24, 2020


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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