Live: Friday, June 5, 2020

10:05 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continue to make new highs, most recently at 3182.25 in the first half hour after the opening bell.

What does it mean? The final leg up of the upward correction that began on March 22 continues, having retraced more than 80% of the decline that began on February 19.

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What does Elliott wave theory say? The index is in Intermediate wave C within Primary wave 2, which is correcting the downward Cycle wave 1, the beginning of a very large decline. I’ve redone my count of the waves internal to C, and they show that C is in its 5th and final wave to the upside, beginning yesterday at the Minute degree within the 5th wave of the Minor degree, which began May 27.

Next move: Primary wave 3 to the downside, carrying the price below 2000.


What is the alternative? A push above 3397.50 would require a rethinking of the entire analysis since February 19. I don’t expect this to happen.

What about my trades? No options are in my account at present. My shares in SDS profit when the S&P 500 goes down and loses when it rises.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave International has long been the leading analytical house based on Elliott wave theory. They make available a number of free educational materials and other resources, in addition to their for-pay subscriptions.

I recommend two books, both by people associated with EWI.

First, Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost is the book that, along with Prechter’s analyses, that created the revival of Elliott wave theory. I first read it in 1984, and it has had a profound influenced on my thinking about markets ever since.

Second, I’ve found Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading by Wayne Gorman and Jeffrey Kennedy, both of EWI, to be a useful book that relates Elliott wave theory to practical trading. The authors are hands-on Elliotticians, and for an active trader, that’s exactly what’s needed — less theory and more how-to. The first chapter of the book gives a very nice thumbnail run down of what Elliott wave theory is all about.

Terminology. Here are some links to information about some of the technical jargon I use.

Charts. On my charts, waves have a subscript showing the degree above or below the Intermediate degree. Here are the subscripts and the degree each represents:

  • {+3} Supercycle
  • {+2} Cycle
  • {+1} Primary
  • No subscript: Intermediate
  • {-1} Minor
  • {-2} Minute
  • {-3} Minuette

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 5, 2020


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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