10:45 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures moved up to yet another higher high, 3108.25 so far, which is 32.75 points above the previous higher high set on Tuesday.

What does it mean? The upward correction that began March 22 continues. How close to complete it might be depends upon how we interpret the present leg up within that correction, which began May 27 at 2965.5

What does Elliott wave theory say? How close the index is to a reversal depends upon how we count the waves internal to the rise from May 27, which is Minor wave 5. Within that wave, honestly, the structure is a bit messy, with ambiguities that are common to the paths traced by the markets.

I count our present positions as being:

• Micro wave 3
• of Subminuette 3
• of Minuette 3
• of Minute 3
• of Minor 5
• within Intermediate wave C
• of the Primary wave 2 correction.

In other words, the middle wave of the Minor degree is stretching out quite bit. There are other ways of counting, but this one seems to best fit the form of the chart as of this moment. The sticking point is wave 3, which must never be the shortest of a five-wave impulse pattern. When a count shows it to be the shortest, then the count is wrong and standard practice is to move down a degree in order to make the 3rd wave length longer. This why Elliott wave analysis is more art than science.

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10 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? Early this morning, before the opening bell, the S&P 500 E-mini futures exceeded its high of March 28 by 10 points, reaching 3075.50 before retreating a little.

What does it mean? The analysis is unchanged from yesterday. The final upward push of a correction to the decline that began February 19 is underway and nearing its end, or perhaps has already ended. I’ve drawn the channel on the chart based on the assumption that 3075.50 is the correction peak, but that’s not necessarily the case. It’s a what-if framing, not a certainty.

What does Elliott wave theory say? By my count the final wave up of the correction, Intermediate wave C within Primary wave 2 within Cycle wave 1, began on May 14 and has covered 315.25 points, a rise of 11.4%. It has covered sufficient ground to be considered complete. When Primary 2 is done, it will be followed by a very significant decline, Primary wave 3.

 

 

 

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9:45 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures remain below the May 28 peak of 3065.50.

What does it mean? The lack of a new high leaves open the possibility that the rise from March 22 is complete.

What does Elliott wave theory say? I’ve marked today’s chart showing a channel that assumes that the Primary wave 2 correction to the upside is complete. The price remains very close to the upper boundary of the channel but remans below it. If the correction is indeed over, the price will begin to fall down toward the lower boundary of the channel, which at present stands at 2000, more than 1,000 points below the present price.

What is the alternative? The channel’s upper boundary now stands at 3057, which is 24 points above the present price. So it’s a very short rise to the boundary, and if it is pierced, then it strengthens the case that Primary wave 2 is still in force, and there will be another movement to the upside before it reaches its conclusion.

What about my trades? No options are in my account at present. My shares in SDS profit when the S&P 500 goes down and lose when it rises. Now? Losing.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave International has long been the leading analytical house based on Elliott wave theory. They make available a number of free educational materials and other resources, in addition to their for-pay subscriptions.

I recommend two books, both by people associated with EWI.

First, Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost is the book that, along with Prechter’s analyses, that created the revival of Elliott wave theory. I first read it in 1984, and it has had a profound influenced on my thinking about markets ever since.

Second, I’ve found Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading by Wayne Gorman and Jeffrey Kennedy, both of EWI, to be a useful book that relates Elliott wave theory to practical trading. The authors are hands-on Elliotticians, and for an active trader, that’s exactly what’s needed — less theory and more how-to. The first chapter of the book gives a very nice thumbnail run down of what Elliott wave theory is all about.

Terminology. Here are some links to information about some of the technical jargon I use.

• Elliott wave analysis
• Fibonacci level

Charts. On my charts, waves have a subscript showing the degree above or below the Intermediate degree. Here are the subscripts and the degree each represents:

• {+3} Supercycle
• {+2} Cycle
• {+1} Primary
• No subscript: Intermediate
• {-1} Minor
• {-2} Minute
• {-3} Minuette

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 1, 2020

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.