Thursday, April 1, 2021

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued its upward crawl, reaching a high so far today of 4004 on the E-mini futures, 4014.34 on the index. No change to the analysis. I’ve updated the chart below.

10 a.m. New York time

Calendar note: The U.S. stock markets will be closed on Friday for the Easter holiday. The bond and futures markets will close early on Friday, at 12 noon New York time.

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 rose to a new high at the opening, 3991.50 on the E-mini futures and 4002.42 on the index.

What does it mean? The uptrend that began on March 25 is continuing, the final leg of a larger uptrend that began on March 4.

What are the alternatives? At this point I have none. I’ve relabeled the chart to conform to my principle analysis.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? On the chart I’ve labelled the present wave as the 3rd of Submicro {-6} degree within wave 3 of Micro {-5} degree, selecting the degree to conform in duration with my labelling prior to the beginning of Micro 3. This is all happening within wave 5 of Subminuette {-4} degree, which began on October 30, 2020, part of the major uptrend that began on February 23, 2020 as wave 3 of Primary {-3} degree

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave International has long been the leading analytical house based on Elliott wave theory. They make available a number of free educational materials and other resources, in addition to their for-pay subscriptions.

I recommend two books, both by people associated with EWI.

First, Elliott Wave Principle by Robert Prechter and A.J. Frost is the book that, along with Prechter’s analyses, that created the revival of Elliott wave theory. I first read it in 1984, and it has had a profound influenced on my thinking about markets ever since.

Second, I’ve found Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading by Wayne Gorman and Jeffrey Kennedy, both of EWI, to be a useful book that relates Elliott wave theory to practical trading. The authors are hands-on Elliotticians, and for an active trader, that’s exactly what’s needed — less theory and more how-to. The first chapter of the book gives a very nice thumbnail run down of what Elliott wave theory is all about.

Terminology. Here are some links to information about some of the technical jargon I use.

Charts. On my charts, waves have a subscript showing the degree above or below the Intermediate degree. Here are the subscripts and the degree each represents:

  • {+3} Supercycle
  • {+2} Cycle
  • {+1} Primary
  • No subscript: Intermediate
  • {-1} Minor
  • {-2} Minute
  • {-3} Minuette
  • {-4} Subminuette
  • {-5} Micro
  • {-6} Submicro
  • {-7} Minuscule
  • {-8} Subminuscule
  • {-9} Bitsy
  • {-10} Subbitsy

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, April 1, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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