SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued to rise during the day, exceeding the high set before the opening bell, to a peak of 4310.75 on the futures (4319.96 on the index. Because of the rise to new high, I’ve changed my analysis to show the July 1 low of 4286 on the futures (4300.73 on the index) as the end of wave 4 of Minuscule degree, and the subsequent rise to a new high as wave 5 of Minuscule degree, which is still underway. Minuscule 5 is the final wave of Submicro degree, and its completion will also be the completion of five 5th waves of increasingly higher degree, to Minute wave 5, and up one, the completion of wave 3 of Minor degree.

9:50 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a new high, 4305.75, in overnight trading

What does it mean? The uptrend that began June 20 is still underway but nearing an end.

What’s the alternative? If the present rise fails to top 4305.75, then the uptrend ended at that point.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 10-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? In the chart today I drill down to a close-up to see in detail what’s happening within wave 5 of Micro degree, which began on June 20.

One degree down, wave 3 of Submicro degree ended on June 29 at 4290. It was followed by a 4th wave downward correction containing three waves of Minuscule degree and ending on June 30 at 4269.25.

The final wave of the uptrend follows, wave 5 of Submicro degree. By my count, the overnight high of 4305.75 ends wave 3 of Minuscule degree within wave 5 of Submicro degree. The fall from that endpoint is a 4th wave correction of Minuscule degree, and it has been followed by a three-wave rise which is an ongoing wave B of Subminuscule degree.

The B wave will be followed by Subminuscule C, which may complete the correction, although often 4th waves will extend in compounds patterns.

At any rate, Minuscule wave 4 will be followed by Minuscule wave 5 to the upside, which will rise above 4305.75 and when complete, will mark the end of wave 5 of Micro degree and of 5th waves all the way up to Minute degree, and also that Minute degree’s parent, wave 3 of Minor degree, which began on February 23, 2020 from 2191.86 on the S&P 500 index.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 1, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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