SP500 Analysis

10:10 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The U.S. markets are closed in observance of the Independence Day. The S&P 500 E-mini futures are trading in an abbreviated global session, and overnight remained about 4 points below the high of 4347 attained Friday shortly before the closing bell.

What does it mean? The uptrend that began on June 20 remains underway.

What’s the alternative? The difficulty is figuring out when the end has arrived, since late-stage small declines from a high can be interpreted as either the normal jaggedness of a price movement or as the early stages of a decline. I’ve labeled the chart showing that the trend is underway. It just as well could have ended with Friday’s peak.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 10:07 a.m., 35-minute bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise from June 20 is wave 5 of Micro degree, and it is in its 5th subwave down two levels to Minuscule degree. Completion of Micro 5 will also mark the end of 5th waves up three levels to Minute degree, and also the completion one degree higher of wave 3 of Minor degree.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 5, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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