SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 pushed past the June 14 peak to new highs, 4405.50 on the futures and 4412.81 on the index. The rise that began on February 23, 2020 — wave 5 of Minor degree — is still underway. At a smaller degree, the wave I’m tracking is wave 5 of Submicro degree. No change to the analysis. I’ve updated the chart.

9:50 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise overnight, reaching a high of 4383 so far today. The price is a point and a half below the July 14 high.

What does it mean? The continuing rise shows that the uptrend that began on February 23, 2020 is still underway.

What’s the alternative? The primary uncertainty at this point is how high the price will go. A reasonable target is the upper boundary of the price channel tracking the rise that began March 4, presently in the 4530s. But a higher high of any amount will be sufficient to satisfy the requirements of Elliott wave theory.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise that began on July 19 from 4224 is wave 5 of Submicro degree. It’s completion will cascade up the degrees, marking an end of 5th waves of Micro, Subminuette, Minuette and Minor degrees, and up one more, the end of wave 3 Minor degree.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 23, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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