SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 continued to work its way lower in a downward correction within uptrending wave 5 of Minuscule degree. The price so far has fallen to 4364.75 on the futures, 4372.51 on the index. I’ve updated the chart below.

9:45 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures in overnight trading stayed below Monday’s high of 4416.25.

What does it mean? The final wave of the rise that began July 19 is still underway. It will be followed by a correction.

What’s the alternative? It’s possible that Monday’s high marks the end of the rise from July 19. I consider this to be less likely, in part because the price is well below the upper boundary of the price channel that began on March 4.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 6-hour bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? By my principle count, the rise that began on July 19 is wave 5 of Minuscule degree within wave 5 of Submicro degree within wave 3 of Micro degree, which began on May 19. Micro 3 will be followed by a 4th wave correction that will stay above 4178.75, which is the end of wave 1 of Micro degree.

Under the alternative count, Monday’s high is the end of wave 3 of Micro degree and the 4th wave correction is underway.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 27, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

Creative Commons License

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.