SP500 Analysis

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose during the trading day, reaching 4407.75 on the futures, 4415.47 on the index, in the early stages of a Minuscule degree 5th wave rise to new heights, or, in the alternative analysis, a B-wave rise within a Minuscule 4th wave correction to the downside. There was nothing in today’s trading to resolve the choice. I’ve updated the chart.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 rose in overnight trading from Thursday’s low of 4364.75, reaching 4404.50 as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? In my principle analysis, the decline from the high of 4416.75 on July 26 was a correction within the uptrend that began on July 19, and the subsequent rise suggests that the final leg of the uptrend is underway.

What’s the alternative? It’s possible to view the decline and rise a two stages within the correction, with a decline following this morning’s rise. If the price moves above 4416.75, then the principle analysis is correct. If the price returns to a decline without rising above that level, then the alternative count is correct.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., hourly bars, with volume]

What does Elliott wave theory say? The rise that began July 19 is wave 5 of Submicro degree. Internally, it is nearing completion of its 5th and final wave, of Minuscule degree. The end of Submicro 5 will also be the end of wave 3 of Micro degree, which began on May 19. The price in the 4th wave Micro degree correction that will follow must remain above the end of the preceding 1st wave, at 4179.50, in order to satisfy a rule of Elliott wave analysis.

Learning and other resources. See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 28, 2021


Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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