Bunge Ltd. (BG)

Update 7/27/2022: I exited my short bull put vertical spread on BG, 23 days before expiration, for a $1.78 debit per contract/share, a loss before fees of $71 per contract. Shares were trading at $90.39, down $5.03 from the entry level.

The Implied Volatility Rank at exit was 63.6%, down 29.5 points from the entry level.

I exited on the day after entry, at 45.3% of maximum potential loss, because I’ve rarely seen a losing position return to profitability. In my view, better to take the loss and move on. Analysts expected earnings of $3.40 per share; instead, the report was for 2.97 per share, a 43-cent miss.

Shares declined by 5.3% over one day for a -1,924% annual rate. The options position produced a -39.9% loss for a -14,559% annual rate.

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I have entered a short bull put vertical spread on BG, using options that trade for the last time 24 days hence, on August 19. The premium is a $1.07 credit per contract share and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $95.42.

The Implied Volatility Ratio stood at 93.1%.

Premium:	$1.07	Expire OTM
BG-bull put spread	Strike	Odds	Delta
Puts
Long	85.00	80.0%	17
Break-even	91.07	72.5%	24
Short	90.00	65.0%	31

The premium is 42.8% of the width of the position’s short/long spread. The profit zone covers a 4.6% move to the downside and an unlimited move to the upside.

The risk/reward ratio is 3.7:1, with maximum risk of $393 and maximum reward of $107 per contract.

How I chose the trade. The trade was placed to coincide with BG’s earnings announcement, before the opening bell on the day after entry. The short strikes were set to coincide with the expected move of $7.43 either way, based on options pricing, which gives a price range of $86.91 to $101.77.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 26, 2022

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.