Update 8/3/2022: I exited my short bull put vertical spread on AMD, 44 days before expiration, for a $1.30 debit per contract/share, a loss before fees of $14 per contract. Shares were trading at $97.30, down $2.90 from the entry level.
The Implied Volatility Rank at exit was 29.2%, down 24.7 points from the entry level.
I exited on the day after entry because the position was showing a loss, at 33.9% of maximum allowed under my hedge limiting downside risk. Earnings beat analysts’ consensus estimate by 11%. The revenues forecast, however, was slightly below expectations, so the share price — always forward looking — adjusted to match.
Shares fell by 2.9% over one day for a -1,056% annual rate. The options position produced a 10.8% loss for a -3931% annual rate.
I have entered a short bull put vertical spread on AMD, using options that trade for the last time 45 days hence, on September 16. The premium is a $1.16 credit per contract share and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $100.20.
The Implied Volatility Ratio stood at 53.90%.
|AMD-bull put spread||Strike||Odds||Delta|
The premium is 46.4% of the width of the position’s short/long spread. The profit zone covers a 9% move to the downside and an unlimited move to the upside.
The risk/reward ratio is 3.3:1, with maximum risk of $384 and maximum reward of $116 per contract.
How I chose the trade. The trade was placed to coincide with AMD’s earnings announcement, after the closing bell on the day of entry. The short strikes were set to coincide with the expected move of $7.20 either way, based on options pricing, which gives a price range of $91.05 to $104.01. The Zacks Investment Research earnings surprise predictor gave AMD a score of 1.66%, with a rank of 3 (neutral).
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 2, 2022
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.
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