Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM)

Lot 2022-2

Update 10/28/2022: I exited my short bull put vertical spread on XOM, 21 days before expiration, for a $0.71 debit per contract/share, a profit before fees of $9 per contract. Shares were trading at $110.63, up $2.44 from the entry level.

The Implied Volatility Rank at exit was 50.8%,up 2.3 points from the entry level.

I exited on the day after entry because the position reached 21.1% of maximum potential profit, to my minimum target of 25% of max.

Shares rose by 2.3% over one day for a +823% annual rate. The options position produced a 12.7% return for a +4,627% annual rate.

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I have entered a short bull put vertical spread on XOM, using options that trade for the last time 22 days hence, on November 18. The premium is a $0.90 credit per contract share and the stock at the time of entry was priced at $108.19.

The Implied Volatility Ratio stood at 48.5%.

Premium:	$0.90	Expire OTM
XOM-bull put spread	Strike	Odds	Delta
Puts
Long	106.00	46.0%	39
Break-even	108.90	47.5%	42.5
Short	108.00	49.0%	46

The premium is 90% of the width of the position’s short/long spread. The profit zone covers a 0.7% move to the downside and an unlimited move to the upside.

The risk/reward ratio is 1.2:1, with maximum risk of $110 and maximum reward of $90 per contract.

How I chose the trade. The trade was placed to coincide with XOM’s earnings announcement, before the closing bell after the day of entry. The short strikes were set to coincide with the expected move of $2.91 either way, based on options pricing, which gives a price range of $105.28 to $111.10. The Zacks Investment Research earnings surprise predictor gave XOM a score of 1.39%, with a rank of Buy (2). The analysts’ consensus is that XOM will announce earnings of $3.88 per share.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 27, 2022

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.