3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session.

Elliott Wave Theory: The price returned to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, as the low-degree 5th wave that began on August 8 from 6334.50. The wave paused around 6419, a bit less than $ below the 3d-wave endpoint.

When wave 5 reaches its end, it will also be the end of its parent, a 2nd-wave upward correction, and the beginning of a 3rd-wave downtrend. All of this is with a larger A-wave, the first subwave of a 2nd-wave downward correction, a major peak at 5468.50 on July 31.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures fluctuated from the 6330s to the 6380s overnight.

What does it mean? The range, accordng to Elliott Wave Theory, is around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, as the 2nd=-wave upward correction that began on August 1 continues to work through its 4th subwave, one degree lower.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 30-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 Futures
• 2{-3} Minuette, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• A{-4} Subminuette, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• 2{-5} Micro, 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 5{-6} Submicro, 8/7/2025 6334.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 8, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on a work at www.timbovee.com.