3:30 a.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued to rise during the session, so far reaching 7017.25.

Elliott Wave Theory. Today’s rise moves price closer to a level that would confirm that rising wave B{-9} is still underway. That confirmation level remains 7043 (the January 27 high).

The alternative scenario—that the January 27 peak marked the start of declining wave C{-9}—remains possible, but still unproven. Until price makes a decisive move (above 7043 to confirm B{-9}, or back down through the key supports you’ve been tracking to strengthen the C{-9} case), I’m keeping the B{-9} count on the chart as the status quo.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to 6965.75 when trading resumed overnight, then quickly reversed and fell to 6864.50. From that low it began to rise again, and as the opening bell approached it was trading in the 6940s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory question from last week remains unanswered so far this week: is rising wave B{-9} still underway, or did the January 27 peak at 7043 mark the start of declining wave C{-9}?

Both alternatives are subwaves of wave 4{-8}, a falling corrective wave that is itself part of wave C{-7}, a subwave within rising corrective wave 4{-6}. Most corrections have three subwaves, but wave 4{-6} will likely have five, because it is taking the form of an expanding triangle.

At this point, the question of which wave is underway will be clarified by where price goes next:

• A decisive rise above 7043 (the January 27 high) supports the view that wave B{-9} is still underway.
• A decisive decline below 6898 increases the odds that wave C{-9} is underway, and a further decline below 6814.50 would add weight to that scenario.

Meanwhile: until there is a decisive move, I’m retaining the wave B{-9} scenario on the chart as the status quo, unless and until it is overturned by events.

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[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 140-minute bars, with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} Minuscule, 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • 4{-8} (none), 1/13/2026, 7036.25 (down)
  • B{-9} (none), 1/21/2026, 6814-50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, February 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com