9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a new overnight peak, 7570.75. The new high is one point above the previous peak, 7569.75. The price then fell back into the 7530s.

What does it mean? The small push to a higher high verifies, using Elliott Wave Theory, that wave D{-5} continues its upward journey, which began on March 30 from 6353.25.

The decline from the prior high, 7569.75, was too small to argue strongly that wave D{-5} had ended at that peak and that wave E{-5} had begun. It was a blink within the much larger rise from March 30. And so it proved to be.

The message of the new high, 7570.75, once again will depend upon what comes next — a small decline, a small higher high, or something significant.

There is no way to know yet. Once again, the new peak may be the end of wave D{-5}, or not.

In either case, the parent wave, a 4th-wave downward correction labeled wave 4{-4}, will not be complete until wave D{-5} and then the future declining wave E{-5} are complete. The end of E{-5} will be the end of the Expanding Triangle form that wave 4{-4} has traced, with each rising subwave rising higher than the one before and each falling subwave falling lower. That suggests wave E{-5} is likely to reach the 6350s and lower.

Decision Points. A rise above 7570.75 would keep wave D{-5} clearly alive, although a new high at this late stage would not imply that much more rise remains ahead.

A sideways movement near the high, or a small decline followed by another small higher high, would also keep wave D{-5} alive.

A decline that remains shallow compared with the rise from March 30 would not, by itself, be enough to declare wave D{-5} complete. The chart would need to produce a decline large enough to matter at the D/E degree.

A decisive decline from the 7570.75 area, especially one that breaks below recent intraday support and continues lower, would strengthen the argument that wave D{-5} has ended and that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 6-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 4/2/2026, 6503.75 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, May 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com