9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose gently overnight, setting an early low of 7612 and reaching a high so far of 7636.75. The price remains below yesterday’s high, 7648.75, in the rise that began on March 30.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis continues to place the futures in rising wave D{-5}, the next-to-the-last subwave within downward correction wave 4{-4}, which began in October. When D{-5} is complete, declining wave E{-5} will begin. Most likely, E{-5} will carry the price into the 6350s or lower as it brings wave 4{-4} to an end.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would extend wave D{-5} and move its end point higher. A reversal from below that level would keep alive the possibility that D{-5} has already ended, although confirmation would require a much larger decline. The decisive downside level remains the upper boundary of the expanding triangle; a break below that boundary would confirm that wave E{-5} is underway.

In summary, wave D{-5} continues, but today’s overnight rise has not yet made a new D-wave high.

The Chart. The chart focuses on rising wave D{-5} within downward correction wave 4{-4}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his bookScience and Sanity(1933), “Themapis not theterritory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 16, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Based on work atwww.timbovee.com