Market Holiday. The U.S. markets will be closed on Friday for Juneteenth, a holiday celebrating the end of slavery. Trading of the S&P 500 futures will resume Sunday evening.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from 7504.25 into the 7560s overnight, reaching a high of 7568.25. The futures then fluctuated mostly within the 7530s to 7560s.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Rising wave D{-5} continues. It began on March 30 and is the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle, in which each rising subwave ends higher than the prior rising subwave, and each falling subwave ends lower than the prior falling subwave. It makes for a wave that covers a lot of territory, increasing in size as it progresses.

Decision Points. The immediate upper decision point is 7568.25. A move above that level would extend the overnight rise and increase the odds of a renewed challenge to the June 15 high of 7648.75. A move above 7648.75 would extend wave D{-5}.

The immediate lower decision point is 7504.25. A fall below that level would end the overnight rise and return attention to the pullback from 7648.75. The larger lower decision point remains the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle. A break below that boundary would verify that wave D{-5} has ended and that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. The chart focuses on downward correction wave 4{-4}, which began on October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 18, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com