9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures spent the overnight hours drifting sideways in a range that was narrow relative both to Tuesday’s decline and to the larger wave now under review. The overnight low was 7420.25, and the overnight high, so far, was 7467.25. The slowing suggests a pause rather than an accelerating collapse.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory leaves the count unresolved. Rising wave D{-5}, the next-to-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, most likely remains underway. However, wave D{-5} may have ended on June 15 at 7648.75, in which case declining wave E{-5}, the triangle’s final subwave, has begun.

Both wave D{-5} and wave E{-5} are subwaves of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October. Because the decline from 7648.75 has not yet broken the upper boundary of the expanding triangle, the E{-5} interpretation remains possible but unverified.

Decision Points. A rise above 7648.75 would confirm that wave D{-5} is still underway and would extend the D wave. A decline below the upper boundary of the expanding triangle would provide stronger evidence that wave E{-5} is underway. Until one of those events occurs, the market remains in the same ambiguous zone that has governed the past several sessions.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on rising wave D{-5}, which began on March 30 and is a subwave of downward correction wave 4{-4}. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025, and is taking the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form in which each upward swing moves higher than the upward swing before it, and each downward swing moves lower than the downward swing before it.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 24, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Based on work atwww.timbovee.com