9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures continued falling overnight, reaching the 7350s, and then bounced modestly while remaining well below Thursday’s high.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory. As has been the case since the decline began from the June 15 high, 7648.75, there is ambiguity over which subwave within wave 4{-4} is underway. Wave 4{-4} is a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. It is taking the form of an expanding triangle, a somewhat uncommon form in which each upward swing moves higher than the upward swing before it, and each downward swing moves lower than the downward swing before it.

The ambiguity has to do with whether the June 15 high was the end of the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, rising wave D{-5}, and therefore the beginning of the final subwave, falling wave E{-5}; or whether the decline is a correction within ongoing wave D{-5}.

The question of the moment is this: How low must the price go to confirm that wave E{-5} is underway? At what decision point do the labels change?

Decision Points. The first decision point is the rising upper boundary of the expanding triangle. A fall below that boundary would provide operational confirmation that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and that wave E{-5} is underway. On the present chart, that boundary is in roughly the same area as the June 11 low, 7232.25. A fall below 7232.25 would make the alternate count — that wave D{-5} remains underway — unlikely.

Until that break occurs, the decline remains ambiguous. The deeper the decline goes, the more the evidence favors wave E{-5}; but the labels need not change until the price breaks the triangle boundary. On the upside, a rise above the June 15 high, 7648.75, would eliminate the E{-5} interpretation and confirm that wave D{-5} is still underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, June 26, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Based on work atwww.timbovee.com