Market Holiday. U.S. markets will be closed on July 3 in celebration of the American Declaration of Independence from the British Empire on July 4, 1776. Trading will resume on Monday, July 6.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply when the latest employment report was published before the opening bell. Non-farm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, while the unemployment rate, at 4.2%, changed little. The initial rise carried the price from the 7550s into the 7570s, but after 15 minutes the advance faltered and gave back much of the report-driven gain.

What does it mean? In terms of Elliott Wave Theory, the rise remained below yesterday’s high during a downward correction within rising wave D{-5}, and remained well below the wave D{-5} peak so far, 7648.75, set on June 15.

The initial extent of the rise added some credence to the conclusion that wave D{-5} is still underway. The sharp pullback from the 7570s, however, preserved the ambiguity that has dominated the chart. An alternative analysis concludes that wave D{-5} ended with the June 15 peak and that declining wave E{-5} has begun.

Which conclusion will prevail? Impossible to say at this point. A move above yesterday’s high would improve the bullish case. A continued failure from the 7570s, especially if the price falls back through the pre-report area, would keep open the alternative that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

All of this is happening within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The end of wave E{-5} will also be the end of wave 4{-4} and the beginning of a months-long uptrend, wave 5{-4}. Until then, the expanding triangle form taken by wave 4{-4} will continue.

Decision Points. A move above yesterday’s high, 7579, would improve the case that rising wave D{-5} remains underway. A move above the June 15 peak, 7648.75, would verify that conclusion.

A continued failure from the 7570s would preserve the ambiguity. A fall back through the pre-report area in the 7550s would weaken the bullish interpretation, and a decline below the overnight low, 7520.25, would strengthen the alternative that falling wave E{-5} has begun.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, a rising wave within a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025 and that has contained all that has happened in the market since. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a,m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content onTim Bovee, Private TraderbyTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under aCreative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com