3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures’ rise following the pre-session Producer Price Index report proved to be less a bullish response to softer inflation data than the first leg of a double whipsaw. After rising to 7626.25, the price reversed almost immediately and fell rapidly to 7571.75. It then reversed again and swiftly recovered into the 7610s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Despite the drama, the whipsaws covered relatively little territory. I find nothing in the movement sufficient to change this morning’s analysis: Rising wave D{-5} appears to remain underway.

Decision Points. A sustained move above today’s high of 7626.25 would restore the upward momentum interrupted by the whipsaw. A further rise above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would strengthen the present labeling and fulfill the minimum expectation for rising wave C{-8}.

A decline below today’s low of 7571.75 would show that the recovery is failing, but would not by itself establish that wave D{-5} has ended. A break below the wave B{-8} low of 7468.50 would invalidate the immediate C{-8} interpretation and reopen the possibility that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose sharply as the opening bell approached following publication of the Producer Price Index report for June. The report showed softer producer inflation during the month preceding the resumption of heavy fighting in the U.S.-Iran War, although the 12-month inflation readings remained elevated.

What does it mean? In applying Elliott Wave Theory, I have moved the chart closer in to focus on the subwaves—and especially wave C{-6}—within rising wave D{-5}. Wave D{-5} is the next-to-the-last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

Since the June 15 peak of 7648.75, the chart has been ambiguous. Did wave D{-5} end on June 15, allowing falling wave E{-5} to begin? Or was wave D{-5} still underway?

The subwaves visible in the closer view provide a greater degree of clarity.

Wave D{-5} appears to be in its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. That wave, in turn, appears to be in its third and final subwave, rising wave C{-7}. At the lowest degree marked on the chart, rising wave C{-8} is underway and appears likely to exceed the June 15 high.

Such a move would fulfill the minimum expectation for the terminal rise. However, the ends of waves C{-8}, C{-7}, C{-6} and D{-5} would not be established until the rise subsequently reverses. That reversal would mark the beginning of falling wave E{-5}, which can be expected eventually to carry the price below the prior low of the expanding triangle.

A degree of ambiguity remains, as is normal when Elliott Wave Theory is applied. For me, however, this structure provides a substantially stronger argument that wave D{-5} remains underway and that wave E{-5} lies in the future.

Decision Points. A sustained move above the June 15 high of 7648.75 would strengthen the present labeling and confirm that rising wave C{-8} is extending. It would not, by itself, signal that wave D{-5} has ended. Evidence of completion would require a reversal from the new high.

A decline below the wave B{-8} low at 7468.50 before a new high would invalidate the immediate C{-8} interpretation and reopen the possibility that wave D{-5} has already ended. After a new high, a decline below that level would provide initial evidence that the terminal rise is complete. A further break below the wave B{-7} low at 7357.25 would provide substantially stronger evidence that falling wave E{-5} is underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on the subwaves of wave D{-5}, a rising wave that began on March 30 within a downward correction, wave 4{-4}, that began on October 29, 2025. The blue line traces the upper boundary of the wave 4{-4} expanding triangle.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 15, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com