3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose during the session to a high of 7554 and then pulled back slightly, remaining near the upper end of the day’s range.

Elliott Wave Theory. This morning’s analysis remains unchanged. Rising wave D{-5} remains the more likely interpretation, but it has not been confirmed. The alternative analysis holds that wave D{-5} ended at the June 15 peak, 7648.75, and declining wave E{-5} began from that point. That interpretation also remains unconfirmed.

Decision Points. A sustained rise above today’s high, 7554, would strengthen the interpretation that rising wave D{-5} remains underway and would open the way toward another test of 7648.75. A move above 7648.75 would eliminate the possibility that wave D{-5} ended on June 15.

A decline below today’s low in the 7500s would weaken the immediate rise. A break below the recent low at 7473 would strengthen the alternative interpretation that declining wave E{-5} has begun, while a fall below the June 26 low, 7357.25, would provide substantially stronger evidence.

Until price breaks decisively from the recent range, neither interpretation has been confirmed.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight to 7530.25 and then reversed, reaching a low so far of 7505.25. The futures remain within the relatively narrow range that has prevailed since June 26.

What does it mean? The narrowness of the movement makes it difficult for Elliott Wave Theory analysis to establish directionality. The small-degree wave now in progress is labeled rising wave C{-7}, a subwave of rising wave C{-6}, which in turn is a subwave of rising wave D{-5}. All are within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

The end of waves C{-7} and C{-6} would also mark the end of rising wave D{-5} and the beginning of declining wave E{-5}. Wave E{-5} is likely to carry the price toward the lower boundary of the expanding triangle, shown by the lower blue line, that forms wave 4{-4}.

The ambiguity lies in an alternative analysis that sees wave D{-5} as having ended at the June 15 peak, 7648.75, with wave E{-5} already having begun its downward journey. At this point, neither the continuation of wave D{-5} nor the beginning of wave E{-5} has been confirmed.

Decision Points. A rise above the overnight high, 7530.25, would keep the C{-7} analysis in play and open the way toward another test of the June 15 peak. A sustained move above 7648.75 would eliminate the possibility that wave D{-5} ended on June 15.

A break below the overnight low, 7505.25, followed by a fall beneath the recent lows in the 7470s, would strengthen the alternative view that declining wave E{-5} is underway. A move below the June 26 low, 7357.25, would provide substantially stronger evidence.

Until the futures break decisively from the recent range, the chart offers little directional advantage. The appropriate course is to wait for price confirmation rather than anticipate either outcome.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 21, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com