9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight from a high of 7549.50 into the 7440s. The decline accelerated in early trading and carried the price below last Friday’s low. The price began to rise as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, when applied, concludes that the decline strengthens the scenario that wave D{-5} ended on June 15 and falling wave E{-5} is now underway. It strengthens that scenario but does not yet confirm it. The ambiguity of recent weeks continues.

If wave E{-5} is underway, then its parent wave, downward-correcting wave 4{-4}, is in its final subwave. Wave E{-5} would be expected to carry the price toward the lower boundary of the triangle—denoted by the lower blue line on the chart, presently in the 6200 area—and perhaps below it. The wave could instead end before reaching the boundary, a condition known in Elliott Wave Theory as truncation.

Wave 4{-4} will be followed by rising wave 5{-4}, which, if typical, will carry the price to new highs.

Decision Points.

A sustained move below the June 26 low of 7357.25 would invalidate the working interpretation that rising wave C{-7} began there and would provide the first strong confirmation that wave E{-5} is underway.

A move below the June 11 low of 7233.25 would provide still stronger confirmation of the bearish scenario.

A reversal above the overnight high of 7549.50 would ease the immediate downward pressure but would not resolve the larger ambiguity. A move above the June 15 peak of 7648.75 would invalidate the interpretation that wave E{-5} began there and confirm that wave D{-5} remains underway.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 23, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com