9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading Sunday evening with an upward opening gap of 60.50 points, having closed Friday at 7444 and opened at 7504.50. They thereafter traded sideways within a narrow range. Trading on both Friday and Sunday remained below Thursday’s 7549.50 high.

What does it mean? The gap provides modest support for the working Elliott Wave Theory count, but the absence of follow-through leaves the larger structure unresolved. Under the present count, rising wave C{-7} within rising wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5} continues.

The structure is part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October 2025 and has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Such structures can require considerable time to reach completion.

When wave D{-5} ends, falling wave E{-5} will begin. The triangle’s boundaries—not always precisely honored—have continued to expand. At present, the lower boundary is near 6200, although its level will change with time. Wave E{-5} can be expected to move generally toward that boundary, but it could end above it, at it, or briefly below it. Its completion would also mark the end of wave 4{-4}.

Rising wave 5{-4} would then begin and would be expected eventually to carry the futures to new highs, potentially over a period of many months.

Decision Points. The first near-term test is Thursday’s 7549.50 high. A sustained break above it would strengthen the continuing C{-7} rise, while failure there followed by a return into Friday’s range would leave the market vulnerable to another downswing. The decisive bullish threshold remains the June 15 high at 7648.75. A break below the June 26 low at 7357.25 would seriously weaken the present rising-wave count.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave D{-5}, the next-to-the last subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025. The blue lines trace the upper and lower boundaries of the expanding triangle form wave 4{-4} has taken.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up}
• 4{-4} Subminutte 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down}
• D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 6353.25 (up}
• C{-6} Submicro, 6/11/2026, 7232.25 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, July 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com