9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell overnight, reaching into the 7710s as the opening bell approached

What does it mean? The price, labelled as rising wave E{-7}, fell below 7724.25, the point where that wave began on August 6. That breaks an iron-clad rule of Elliott Wave Theory: A wave cannot move beyond its own starting point and remain the same wave. The chart therefore requires a reassessment.

Wave E{-7} was labelled as the fifth and final subwave of rising wave C{-6}. Wave C{-6}, in turn, was the third and final subwave of rising wave D{-5}, the next-to-the-last subwave within wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle.

The analysis no longer matches the chart. The map no longer matches the lay of the land. When that happens, it is the map that must change.

The chart below has the revised labeling. (For the old labeling, see yesterday’s analysis.)

On the new map, wave E{-7} ended on August 13 at 7838.50. That also brought waves C{-6} and D{-5} to an end.

Falling wave E{-5} has begun and is working through its first subwave, wave A{-6}.

Wave E{-5} is the final subwave of the expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}. Under the expanding-triangle structure, it can be expected to move below the ending point of wave C{-5}, 6353.25 on March 30, and perhaps significantly lower.

When wave E{-5} is complete, the expanding triangle, wave 4{-4}, will also be complete. Rising wave 5{-4} will then begin and would normally be expected to carry the price to new highs.

Decision Points. The break below 7724.25 invalidated the previous labeling and places falling wave E{-5} underway. The analysis remains valid while the price stays below 7838.50, the August 13 beginning point of E{-5}. A move above 7838.50 would invalidate the new labeling and require another reassessment. On the downside, a move below 6353.25 would satisfy the expanding triangle’s expectation that wave E{-5} travel beyond the end of the preceding declining wave, C{-5}.

The Chart. Today’s chart focuses on wave C{-6}, a subwave of rising wave D{-5}, which is part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has been underway since October 29, 2025.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methodsfor a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 17, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com