3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. From the overnight peak of 7714, the S&P 500 futures fell to 7663.25 during the session, and then rose back into the 7690s.

Elliott Wave Theory. The analysis is unchanged from this morning. Wave A{-6} and its parent, wave E{-5}, are underway, both of them falling waves.

Decision Points. A decline below 7663.25 would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} is continuing downward. A rise above 7714 would suggest that the present upward correction has further to run, without by itself changing the larger bearish count.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, reaching a high of 7714, and then took back part of the gain, falling into the 7690s as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory, when applied, sees the rise as a small counter-trend movement within falling wave A{-6}, which in turn is a subwave of falling wave E{-5}. The structure is encompassed by wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Wave 4{-4} began on October 29, 2025.

Decision Points. A renewed decline below Monday’s low in the 7650s would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} is continuing downward. A rise above the overnight high of 7714 would extend the counter-trend movement but would not by itself alter the larger bearish count. A move above 7838.50, the August 13 peak, would invalidate the present placement of the start of wave E{-5}.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 3:30 p.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 25, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com