3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures rose to a peak of 7755.50 and then fell rapidly to the 7720s.

The Elliott Wave Theory analysis is unchanged. Wave A{-6} continues its downward trend, as does its parent, wave E{-5}.

Decision Points. A decline below 7707, the overnight low, would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} is extending downward. A rise above today’s 7755.50 high would weaken the immediate bearish momentum but would not alter the Elliott Wave count. The larger bearish structure remains intact unless /ES rises above the Aug. 13 high of 7838.50.

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a high, 7741.25, early in overnight trading and then began to fall, reaching a low of 7707 before rising into the 7730s and then beginning to decline again, falling further as the opening bell sounded..

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory: Unchanged. Falling wave A{-6} within falling wave E{-5} continues.

Decision Points. The overnight low of 7707 is the nearest marker for the decline. A break below that level would strengthen the case that wave A{-6} is extending downward and would put the recent lows in the 7670s and 7650s back in play. A move above 7741.25 would weaken the immediate bearish momentum but would not alter the Elliott Wave count. The larger count remains intact unless /ES rises above the Aug. 13 high of 7838.50.

The Chart. The chart focuses on the current declining wave E{-5} and the rising wave that preceded it, wave D{-5}.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

• S&P 500 Index:
• 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
• 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
• 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
• 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
• 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
• 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
• S&P 500 E-mini futures
• 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
• 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
• E{-5} Micro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)
• A{-6} Submicro, 8/13/2026, 7838.50 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, August 27, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com