Trader’s Notebook: S&P 500

Tim BoveeLeave a comment

9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures began overnight trading by moving sideways, reaching a low of 7829, and then began to rise. The futures reached a high of 7867.75, exceeding the September 22 peak of 7848.50. The price moved a bit higher as the opening bell rang.

What does it mean? Applying Elliott Wave Theory, the new peak resolves the ambiguity that has defined the futures for weeks. Rising wave D{-5} is underway, and that fact is now confirmed. Falling wave E{-5} has not yet begun and lies in the future.

By rising still higher, wave D{-5} continues to trace an unusual path. It is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began on October 29, 2025.

Wave 4{-4} has taken the form of an expanding triangle. Normally, the waves of a triangle end in the neighborhood of the upper or lower boundaries, lines drawn through the endpoints of the triangle’s earlier subwaves.

Wave D{-5} rose above the upper boundary in late April and has remained above it ever since, a condition that is not unheard of but is not the norm. With today’s new peak, D{-5} has moved still farther beyond the boundary.

Decision Points. A rise above 7848.50 was the level required to confirm that wave D{-5} remained underway, and the overnight move to 7867.75 has provided that confirmation. The question now is no longer whether D{-5} is still rising, but where it will end and falling wave E{-5} will begin. There is no Elliott Wave signal yet that the turn has occurred.

Chart. The chart shows the entirety of wave 4{-4} so far.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

  • S&P 500 Index:
  • 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
  • 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
  • 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
  • 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
  • 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
  • 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
  • S&P 500 E-mini futures
  • 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
  • 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
  • C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 6, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

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