9:35 a.m. New York time
What’s happening now? The S&P 500 E-mini futures fell further during overnight trading, reaching 7802.75 before recovering some of the loss.
What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory continues to indicate that rising wave D{-5} and its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}, are underway. But how far is wave C{-6} from completion? To explore that question, we turn to a close-up chart showing its internal structure.
These waves are part of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction that began in October last year and has taken the form of an expanding triangle.
Unlike a typical zigzag correction, whose A and C waves usually contain five subwaves and whose B wave contains three, an expanding triangle has five major subwaves, labeled A through E, each subdividing into three waves.
Wave D{-5} is now in its final subwave, rising wave C{-6}. Because C{-6} is a motive wave, it subdivides into five waves, and the close-up chart places it in its fifth and final subwave, rising wave 5{-7}.
Within wave 5{-7}, rising wave 1{-8} is still underway. The present decline is provisionally labeled wave 2{-9}, a correction within that rising first wave.
Several steps remain before wave D{-5} can be declared complete. Wave 2{-9} must give way to rising wave 3{-9}, followed by waves 4{-9} and 5{-9}, completing wave 1{-8}. A correction in wave 2{-8} would then follow, before additional rising and corrective waves carry the structure through wave 5{-8}.
The completion of wave 5{-8} would also mark the end of wave 5{-7}, wave C{-6}, and wave D{-5}.
Falling wave E{-5} would then begin. If the expanding triangle develops as expected, wave E{-5} should carry prices toward the triangle’s lower boundary.
Its completion would also end the larger downward correction, wave 4{-4}, setting the stage for rising wave 5{-4}, which would typically be expected to carry prices to new highs.
The conclusion is that wave D{-5} is in its final stages, but several smaller waves remain before its completion can be verified.
Decision Points. The first question is whether the overnight decline remains a correction within rising wave 1{-8}. A resumption of the advance, followed by a move above 7897.50, would strengthen that interpretation.
A decline below 7711, the starting point of wave 5{-7}, would invalidate the present count and require reassessment.
The larger trading opportunity remains the anticipated decline in wave E{-5}. Its beginning has not been verified. Bearish positions would be considered only after the reversal provides sufficient confirmation.
Chart. The chart shows the final subwave, wave C{-6} within rising wave D{-5}, which in turn is a subwave of wave 4{-4}, a downward correction.
[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:55 a.m., 1-day bars with volume]
Waves Now Underway
These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.
- S&P 500 Index:
- 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
- 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
- 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
- 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
- 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
- 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
- S&P 500 E-mini futures
- 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
- 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
- D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
- C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
- 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
- 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.
Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.
See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.
By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 8, 2026
Disclaimer
Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.
Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.
No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.
Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.
All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
License
Based on work atwww.timbovee.com
