Trader’s Notebook: S&P 500

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9:35 a.m. New York time

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 futures continued their decline overnight, briefly plunging to 7728.75 following the release of economic reports at 8:30 a.m. New York time. The price quickly recovered into the 7740s, suggesting that the initial selling pressure had not been sustained.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory. The decline is part of falling wave C{-10}, the final subwave within declining wave 2{-9}. Wave C{-10} is expected to subdivide into five waves at degree {-11}, and that structure has not yet been completed.

The correction is occurring within rising wave D{-5}, the next-to-last wave of an expanding triangle that began on October 29, 2025. Wave D{-5} has been underway since March 30 and remains within its final rising subwave, C{-6}.

The October 6 peak of 7897.50 remains the reference high for the present correction.

Decision Points. The immediate question is whether the overnight low of 7728.75 will hold as wave C{-10} develops its remaining subwaves. A decline below that level would indicate renewed selling pressure, while a sustained recovery would invite a closer examination of the smaller-degree wave count.

The larger Elliott Wave analysis remains unchanged. Rising wave D{-5} is still underway, and the anticipated completion of declining wave 2{-9} would set the stage for another upward movement within that structure.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures 9:35 a.m., 2-hour bars with volume]

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

  • S&P 500 Index:
  • 5{+3} Supercycle, 7/8/1932, 4.40 (up)
  • 5{+2} Cycle, 12/9/1974, 60.96 (up)
  • 5{+1} Primary, 3/6/2009, 666.79 (up)
  • 5{0} Intermediate, 2/11/2016, 1810.10 (up)
  • 3{-1} Minor, 3/23/2020, 2191.36 (up)
  • 1{-2} Minute, 7/31/2025, 6468.50 (down)
  • S&P 500 E-mini futures
  • 5{-3} Minuette 8/1/2025, 6239.50 (up)
  • 4{-4} Subminuette 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • D{-5} Micro, 3/30/2026, 7353.25 (up)
  • C{-6} Submicro, 7/29/2026, 7324 (up)
  • 5{-7} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)
  • 1{-8} (none), 10/1/2026, 7711 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart.R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity(1933), “The map is not the territory… The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu pageAnalytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, October 15, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader managing his own accounts. The content reflects my interpretation of market structure, including Elliott Wave Theory and related tools.

Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options, or any other financial instrument, or to pursue any particular strategy. The purpose of this blog is education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful. Trading in stock and options markets involves risk and uncertainty. Each trader must make decisions for his or her own account and accept full responsibility for the outcomes.

Charts and tools are used to support my personal analysis. Any data displayed is illustrative of that analytical process and is not presented as a source of market data for redistribution.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader byTimothy K. Boveeis licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work atwww.timbovee.com

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