3:30 p.m. New York tme

Half an hour beforee the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell during the session to 6886.75 and then rose to slightly above 6900.

Elliott Wave Theory: The session low tilts the balance toward the view that wave 5{-6} may be underway—but the chart still lacks decisive confirmation unless the decline extends below 6771.50. That number is where the present subwave, wave C{-8} within waves C{-7} and 4{-6} began. If C{-8} is complete, that completion cascades upward: it would also mark the end of C{-7} and therefore the end of wave 4{-6}.

The AI ChatGPT did the analysis, and I asked for a deeper dive into its reasoning. It seemed overly cautious to treat 6771.50 as a requirement before switching labels, since price action can justify a likelihood lean well before full confirmation arrives.

Here’s what ChatGPT wrote:

“There are two different standards we can use in real-time wave work: certainty and likelihood. Certainty is the ‘no-debate’ level — the price point that, once crossed, makes one interpretation impossible. On this chart, if 6771.50 is the start of wave C{-8}, then a decisive break below 6771.50 means C{-8} cannot still be the active up-wave. That doesn’t mean we must wait for that break to form an opinion; it means that below that line the alternative count is essentially dead.

“Likelihood is the practical standard: ‘given what price is doing right now, which scenario is more probable?’ Here the evidence is mixed, so we’re weighting competing clues. The drop to 6871.50 increases the odds that wave 5{-6} is underway because it’s fresh downside progress rather than a tidy pullback, and because the rebounds that follow these declines have not been producing higher highs—a simple operational definition of a downtrend. But the rebound back to 6903.75 reminds us that this market is still capable of snap-backs and overlap typical of a correction, so we can’t call it high-confidence yet. That’s why I’ve treated the current state as more likely than not (above 50%) that wave 5{-6} has begun—while reserving full certainty for the “no-debate” break below 6771.50.”

True confession: I tend to lean toward likelihood rather than waiting for full certainty. But I also think that it’s worthwhile knowing both views, and the AI has provided that sort of analysis. I shall leave rising wave 4{-6} labeled as underway, especially since the price bounced back above 6900, but will continue to keep the likelihood analysis in mind.

So where do we stand? Two lenses, one chart: likelihood to stay nimble, certainty to stay honest.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading in the evening, New Year’s Day, from 6897 and rose from that low point to 6938.50, then dropped back into the 6920s and into the 6910s as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory views the first trading day of 2026 in much the same way as the last week of 2025 — a choice between a scenario in which an upward correction, wave 4{-6}, continues to rise, with the usual pullbacks, and a scenario in which wave 4{-6} ended on December 26 at 6994 and downtrending wave 5{-6} immediate began.

And, as was the case in the final days of last year, the first day of this year gives little guidance as to which scenario is correct.

An analysis by the AI ChatGPT places the decision points as follows:

• Bullish / favors wave 4{-6} continuing: a clean push that holds above ~6947, then reclaims ~6978, and especially a break above 6994 (that would strongly argue 4{-6} is still in progress).
• Bearish / favors wave 5{-6} underway: a failure of this rebound followed by a break back under ~6885–6900, then downside follow-through toward 6854, with the big confirmation being a decisive break below 6771.50 (the December17 low).

“Bottom line,” ChatGPT writes, “the first session of 2026 doesn’t resolve the wave count. It’s still range behavior, and the next meaningful clue will come from whether the market can take out resistance toward 6994 or instead roll over and start making lower lows under 6885, then 6771.50.“

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 60-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • C{-8} (none), 12/17/2025, 6771.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, January 2, 2026

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

Holiday schedule. Tonight is New Year’s Eve, and the stock markets will wrap up early today, at 2 p.m. New York time. Markets will be closed on Thursday — New Year’s Day — and the session will return to its regular hours on Friday, January 2, 2026.

1:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 E-mini futures reached a session low of 6913.75 and then rose modestly into the 6920s.

Elliott Wave Theory. Today produced a brief break below 6915, which is a point in favor of downtrending wave 5{-6} having begun. However, that break has not yet shown staying power. Price recovered back into the 6920s, and the session has so far remained a tug-of-war rather than a decisive breakdown.

Bottom line. I’ve retained the status quo for now: the upward correction, wave 4{-6}, remains the working count. That said, the market also rejected the morning spike high at 6951.5. As long as price remains below that level, the burden of proof stays on the bulls.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 1:30 p.m., 5-minute bars, with volume] 

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures opened in the 6940s overnight, declined into the 6930s, and then rose sharply into the 6950s on the Initial Jobless Claims release an hour before the opening bell.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory is much as it has been for days — stuck in a narrow range, with no clarity as to whether the upward correction, wave 4{-6}, is still underway, or whether wave 4{-6} ended on December 26 and downtrending wave 5{-6} began.

The prior peak was 6994. A rise back toward 6994 would favor the interpretation that wave 4{-6} is continuing. By contrast, continued weakness that remains below the 6978 area — and especially any decline that pushes lower from here — strengthens the argument that wave 5{-6} is underway.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 1:30 p.m., 60-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • C{-8} (none), 12/17/2025, 6771.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 31, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures stayed closeted in the same narrow range during the session as it had overnight — the 6950s and the 6940s. As the main economic event of the day occurred — the release of the FOMC Minutes of the early December meeting — the price remained within that narrow range.

Elliott Wave Theory: Still a conundrum. Either rising wave 4{-6} is still underway, or downtrending wave 5{-6} has begun. The FOMC minutes response did nothing to indicate which is the correct description.

Bottom line: The market read the minutes, yawned, and went back to sleep. Same range—just one more excuse attached to it.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures traded sideways in a narrow range overnight, remaining with the 6940s and 6950s as the opening bell approachedc.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory remains uncertain whether the rising wave C{-8} remains underway, or if it ended on December 26, also ending the parent wave C{-7} and the upward correction, wave 4{-6}, and beginning downtrending wave 5{-6}.

Adding a note of complexity to the trading day, the minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting will be published at 2 p.m. New York time.

Here are the decision levels, based on an analysis by ChatGPT:

Bull case stays alive if:

• Price reclaims ~6980–6994 and can hold above it (especially if it breaks 6994).
• 6994 is the key “you were wrong about the top” level.

Bear case strengthens if:

• Price breaks down out of this chop and takes out the first meaningful swing low from this pullback (roughly the mid-6940s area on this chart), then
• A follow-through drop below 6932.25 (the 12/15 A{-8} marker) would be a cleaner “trend has turned” confirmation.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 60-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • C{-8} (none), 12/17/2025, 6771.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 30, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures has spent most of the session in the 6940s an 6950s after declining overnight.

Elliott WaveTheory. Whether the decline is the start of a downtrending wave or a slight reversal within a 4th-wave upward correction remains uncertain. The price has not fallen far enough to support the downtrend scenario, nor risen sufficient to support the upward correction continues scenario.

So the scenario in effect at this point is, “Time will tell.”

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures peaked at 6994 on December 25, as overnight trading resumed after the holiday.. Since then the price has fallen, so far reaching into the 6940s. It rose slightly as the opening bell sounded.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory places the present position as rising wave C{-8} within rising wave C{-7}, both within wave 4{-6}, an upward correction that began on October 10 from 6540.25.

Friday’s working assumption as to the future movement of the price remains unchanged. Wave C{-8} most likely ended at 6994, and this post-holiday action is the opening leg of the next downswing (i.e., the market is behaving as if that rally was “complete”).

Analysis by ChatGPT:

What would change it back to bullish?

• A push back above 6981.75 is the first “maybe we were wrong.”
• A print above 6994 is the cleaner invalidation: uptrend structure still in progress.

What would confirm the bearish case further (practical trigger levels)?

• A breakdown through 6932.25 (your labeled A{-8} high) would be my next “structure is turning” confirmation.
• From there, 6771.50 (your B{-8} low) becomes the obvious larger downside magnet if this is the start of a real 5{-7}-type decline rather than a shallow pullback.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 55-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • C{-8} (none), 12/17/2025, 6771.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 29, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

(Note that the date above is a host-system error. Published December 26, 2025)

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures fell from the session high, 6994, to 6969, and then reversed, rising again to 6981.75.

Elliott Wave Theory: The intraday decline was structured as an impulse wave with five subwaves. What does it really imply? At this point it’s uncertain.

If the bounce fails to rise beyond 6981.75, then the likelihood increases that wave C{-8} ended at the session peak, 6994. If the price rises higher, moving beyond 6994, then the uptrending structure remains in progress.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:25 a.m., 5-minute bars, with volume] 

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose to a new high, 6990, minutes after trading resumed overnight, exceeding the prior high — 6953.75 — reached on October 29.

What does it mean? The new high broke a rule of Elliott Wave Theory: Under the prior count, treating October 29 as the end of 4{-6} forced an impulse subdivision that implied an overlap conflict once price exceeded that level. When that happens, the chart no longer matches the reality of the price movements — the map no longer match the reality — and the chart must be reanalyzed to find a map that breaks no rules.

The new map changes the labeling of the October 29 peak, the end of wave 4{-6}, to wave A{-7}, the end of the initial subwave within wave 4{-6}. That removed the 1st wave, thereby removing a key component of the rule violation.Under the prior count, treating 10/29 as the end of 4{-6} forced an impulse subdivision that implied an overlap conflict once price exceeded that level.

In the new analysis, rising wave 4{-6} is underway, and is in its final subwave, C[-7}

I asked the AI that I work with, ChatGPT, to explain the changes, which were a mutual undertaking:

ChatGPT (Thinking mode) writes:

Why we relabeled (the motive)

Price pushed above the 10/29 peak (6953.75). That action told us the prior assumption “10/29 ended wave 4{-6} and a 5{-6} downtrend began” was forcing contradictions. In short: the count was starting to fight price. So we rolled the degree up and rebuilt the labels so the structure stays rule-clean.

What we changed

We decided wave 4{-6} is still underway. The October–December structure is therefore a corrective pattern inside wave 4{-6}, not the start of a new impulsive decline.

The revised structure

Wave 4{-6} is subdividing as an A{-7}–B{-7}–C{-7} correction:

• Wave A{-7} ended on 10/29 at 6953.75.
• Wave B{-7} ended on 11/21 at 6525.
• Wave C{-7} is underway now.

Internal subdivisions used on the chart

Inside wave B{-7} (the 10/29 to 11/21 decline):

• A{-8} ended 11/7 at 6655.50
• B{-8} ended 11/12 at 6900.50
• C{-8} ended 11/21 at 6525

Inside wave C{-7} (the rise from 11/21):

• A{-8} ended 12/15 at 6932.25
• B{-8} ended 12/17 at 6771.50
• C{-8} is underway now (today’s advance)

The practical benefit

This keeps the count rule-clean, matches what price actually did, and gives us clean reference levels. 12/15 and 12/17 define the internal A{-8} and B{-8} pivots within the current C{-7} advance, and we can judge continuation or failure from those anchors without inventing minuscule sublabels.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 150-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 4{-6} Submicro, 10/10/2025, 6540.25 (up)
  • C{-7} (none), 11/21/2025, 6525 (up)
  • C{-8} (none), 12/17/2025, 6771.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 26, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching into the 6960s.

Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th-wave upward correction that began on November 22 continues and is now in its third and final subwave, wave C.

It’s most recent pullback ended at 6913.25. The price then rose to its present heights. If the price pulls back to below 6913.25, and fail an attempt to climb back, the most likely wave 4 has ended.

9:40 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 futures fell from the 6930s to the 6910s prior to the opening bell, coincident with the delayed release of the 3rd quarter gross domestic product, which showed a 4.3% growth in the economy before the federal government shutdown. At the opening bell, the price then shot back up to the 6930s.

What does it mean? The Elliott Wave Theory description of the chart was changed in yesterday’s afternoon analysis after a 2nd-wave upward correction moved beyond the start of the preceding 1st wave. The theory says that can’t happen, and if it does, then the analysis contains an error and must be redone.

See yesterday’s Trader’s Notebook for details of the reworking.

Going forward, my goal this morning is to understand where the price is likely to go from here. In the new analysis, wave 4{-7}, an upward correction that began on November 21, is still underway and is in its final subwave, rising wave C{-8}, which began on December 17. When wave C{-8} is complete, it will also be the end of wave 4{-7} and beginning of downtrending wave 5{-7}.

The questions: How much higher is wave 4{-7} to rise, and how low is wave 5{-7} to fall?

Based on the lengths of subwaves A{-8} and B{-8}, wave C{-8} may be at its endpoint already, in the 6930s, although it’s quite possible that it will rise into the 6970s. There are other, higher possible targets for the end of wave C{-8}, up into the 6970s or 6990s, or higher, but they are less likely.

The length of the future declining wave 5{-7} depends in part upon how high the prior 4th wave goes. It is almost certain to fall below the wave 4 starting point, 6525, and is likely to end up somewhere in the range of 6420 to 6370.

All forecasts potentially can prove to be wrong as events play out, and they can also prove to be right. This forecast, while rational, is not certain.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} (none), 11/21/2025, 6932.25 (up)
  • C{-8} (none), 12/17/2025, 6771.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 23, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. the S&P 500 futures has reached a session high of 6936.25. In doing so, the “gotcha” I warned about in the morning analysis has come to pass. Time to rewrite the analysis.

Elliott Wave Theory. A firm rule is that a 2nd wave cannot move beyond the start of the preceding 1st wave. If it does, then the labels no longer fit reality.

Here, then, is the new reality:

Everything we’ve been tracking on the chart, from November 21 to the present day, is part of wave 4{-7}. Our earlier analyses had wave 4{-7} ending on December 15, which today’s high proves was incorrect.

Under the revised count, wave 4{-7} is still underway, and the decline that began on December 15 is a subwave within wave 4{-7}. Specifically, wave A{-8}, the first subwave of wave 4{-7}, ended on December 15 at 6932.25. Wave B{-8} carried price down to its end on December 17 at 6771.50. Rising wave C{-8}, having begun on December 17, is now underway and has reached the 6930s.

And what about wave 5{-7}? Until we see a clean 5-wave decline out of this region, wave 5{-7} remains a forecast, not a fact.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures resumed trading overnight at 6900.50 and rose by more than 20 points, reaching a level less than 10 points below the December 15 high.

What does it mean? Applying Elliott Wave Theory analysis, it is clear that the upward correction that began on December 17 from 6771.50, wave 2{-8}, continues. It is a subwave of wave downtrending wave 5{-7} and it is approaching the start of the preceding 1st wave, wave 1{-8}, on December 15.

Internally, wave 2{-8} appears to ne in its 3rd subwave, rising wave C{-9}. I hedged the description because corrective subwaves tend to be somewhat unclear.

When wave 2{-8} does reach its end, it will be followed by downtrending wave 3{-8}.

But there’s a gotcha looming on the horizon. Here’s a description from the AI I work with for analysis, ChatGPT-5.2. in Thinking mode.

“We’re late in 2{-8} up, and price is now pressing into the completion / invalidation cluster at 6930–6940, with 6932.25 (12/15) as the hard line in the sand. My working bias is still your read: C{-9} up is in progress and likely close to completion. Action: treat 6932.25 as the decision-point. If we reject from just under/around that level and then start taking out prior swing supports (first ~6885, then ~6823), I’ll assume 2{-8} is done and we’re transitioning into 3{-8} down. If we break above 6932.25 and hold, the ‘1{-8} down then 2{-8} up’ interpretation loses its footing and we should stop forcing a 1–2 setup.

“If 6932.25 breaks, the replacement count I’d reach for is: the 12/17 low at 6771.50 was not 1{-8}, but the A{-8} low (or a larger-degree A within a broader correction), and the current rise is not a mere 2{-8} but a continuation of the larger uptrend—i.e., we’re building a stronger B{-8} (or even an early 3{-8}) advance that can legitimately take out the prior high. Practically: above 6932.25, I’d shift from ‘top-hunt and short-trigger’ to ‘accept higher highs, wait for a new down-set (5-wave) to prove itself,’ because the market would be telling us the down leg was corrective, not impulsive.”

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 4{-7} (none), 11/21/2025, 6932.25 (up)
  • C{-8} (none), 12/17/2025, 6771.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 22, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures continued to rise during the session, reaching a daily high so far of 6893.75 before retreating slightly.

Elliott Wave Theory: A 2nd-wave upward correction within the downtrending 5th wave that began on December 15 continues.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose from 6820 to 6954.25 overnight, pulled back into the 6820s, and then with the opening bell rose higher into the 6860s.

What does it mean? The movement remained well below the December 15 peak, and Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the downtrending 5th wave that began on that date from 6912.25 as being underway.

Wave 5{-7}, when complete, will also be the end of its parent, wave 5{-6}, and of the wave one degree higher, wave 1{-5}, which began on October 8, from 6812.25

A likely end point for wave 5{-7} is 6748. However, 5th waves somtimes extend to a larger distance, and it’s possible wave 5{-7} could drop to 6700, or in extreme cases, as far as the 6630s or the 6550s.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} (none), 12/15/2025, 6932.25 (down)
  • 2{-8} (none), 12/17/2025, 6771.50 (up)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 19, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures began to rise shortly before the opening bell and continued to rise during the session. The peak, 6872, was followed by a slight decline.

Elliott Wave Theory: The day’s peak was well below the starting point, 6932.75, of downtrending wave 5{-7}, now underway.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose slightly after the Consumer Price Index data was published prior to the opening bell. Because of the government shutdown in October and November, data is missing, and the comparisons cover a two month span rather than one month. The first post-shutdown historically comparable report will on January 13.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise as being a subwave of downtrending wave 5{-7}, perhaps several degrees smaller than the parent wave 5, perhaps only one wave smaller. It’s hard to tell this early in a wave’s development.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} (none), 12/15/2025, 6932.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 18, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com

3:30 p.m. New York time

Half an hour before the closing bell. The S&P 500 futures declined sharply during the session, reaching below 6800.

Elliott Wave Theory: The 4th wave upward correction that began on November 21 at 6525 ended on December 15 at 6932.25. In the mark-up of the chart: Wave 4{-7} has ended and wave 5{-7} has begun.

The 5th wave will likely move below the start of wave 4 — 6525. Fifth waves have a lot of variation, though, so it could stop short of that level, or it could drop a surprising distance below it.

Also, that expanding triangle I thought was happening for the past few days? It never happened. The chart gained clarity with today’s swift and larger reversal, allowing a more likely analysis, the end of wave 4 and the start of wave 5.

And a note of caution: In past months we’ve all learned to be observant for head-fake reversals, where a decline appears to have started the next downward wave reverses and continues it’s rise. It could happen here, but maybe it won’t.

9:35 a.m. New York time.

What’s happening now. The S&P 500 E-mini futures rose overnight, from the 5830s to the 5880s, remaining within the range of the net sideways movement that began on December 5. It began to decline as the opening bell approached.

What does it mean? Elliott Wave Theory analysis sees the rise since that began on November 21 as being a 4th-wave upward correction. It is now in its second subwave, declning wave B{-8}.

The nature of B{-8} lacks clarity. It’s possible to see it as an expanding triangle, which will have five subwaves. It’s also possible to see it as a contracting/running triangle. It’s an excellent example of the ambiguity that abounds Elliott Wave Theory.

One way it will attain clarity will be as the internal count with wave B progresses. B waves have three subwaves, and it’s the subwave count that is the source of the unclarity.

[S&P 500 E-mini futures at 3:30 p.m., 90-minute bars, with volume] 

Waves Now Underway

These are the waves currently in progress under my principal analysis. Each line on the list shows the wave number, with the subscript in curly brackets, the traditional degree name, the starting date, the starting price of the S&P 500 E-mini futures, and the direction of the wave.

Most of the waves began not long ago, on October 8, 2025. See my essay posted on October 12, 2025, “The End of the Rise from 1932? Elliott Wave Theory Says ‘Yes’”, for a discussion of how that happened.

The difficult problem of estimating when a wave change should be accept as real rather than a headfake is addressed by the essay titled, “Is This Reversal Real?: How to Tell Without Being Whipsawed”.

• 1{+4} Supermillennium, (unknown start date or start price) {down}
  • A hypothetical wave one degree higher than Supercyle, needed to make the wave analysis complete.
• S&P 500 Index:
  • 1{+3} Supercycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+2} Cycle, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{+1} Primary, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{0} Intermediate, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-1} Minor, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-2} Minute, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
• S&P 500 Futures
  • 1{-3} Minuette 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-4} Subminutte 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 1{-5} Micro, 10/8/2025, 6812.25 (down}
  • 5{-6} Submicro, 10/29/2025, 6953.75 (down)
  • 5{-7} (none), 12/15/2025, 6932.25 (down)

Reading the chart. Price movements — waves – – in Elliott Wave Theory analysis are labeled with numbers within trending waves and letters with corrective waves. The subscripts — numbers in curly brackets — designate the wave’s degree, which, in Elliott Wave analysis, means the relative position of a wave within the larger and smaller structures that make up the chart. R.N. Elliott, who in the 1930s developed the form of analysis that bears his name, viewed the chart as a complex structure of smaller waves nested within larger waves, which in turn are nested within still larger waves. In mathematics it’s called a fractal structure, where at every scale the pattern is similar to the others.

Learning and other resources. Elliott Wave analysis provides context, not prophecy. As the 20th century semanticist Alfred Korzybski put it in his book Science and Sanity (1933), “The map is not the territory … The only usefulness of a map depends on similarity of structure between the empirical world and the map.” And I would add, in the ever-changing markets, we can judge that similarity of structure only after the fact.

See the menu page Analytical Methods for a rundown on where to go for information on Elliott Wave analysis.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, December 17, 2025

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

All content on Tim Bovee, Private Trader by Timothy K. Bovee is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

License

Based on work at www.timbovee.com